Research On The Landslide Of North Slope Of Fushun Weat Open Pit Monitorning And Prediction System

With the current GIS technology applications in the field of geological hazards, the main purpose of this paper is to establish a kind of landslide monitoring and prediction system which include geological information and spatial factors by the way of investigation and the use of GIS technology. Based on the monitoring database, the system can analyze the mechanism of landslide hazard, get the landslide prediction development, and finally improve the efficiency and the level of monitoring and prediction. While there are some other operational systems, their use is not high because of numerous data and cumbersome process. Besides, there are more systems in southern China than northern China, no mine area types of landslide system is built. For the example of the north slope of Fushun west open pit landslide, based on MapGIS platform, relies on database management module and data preprocessing module, the north slope of Fushun west open pit landslide monitoring and prediction system has been designed and developed. It helps to make comprehensive analysis and guides the monitoring and prediction work.Based on previous research results and valuable experience, through the geological survey of the north slope of Fushun west open pit mine area, the implementation of GPS monitoring network has been set up. The other kinds of monitoring methods such as borehole inclinometer monitoring, groundwater monitoring and simple monitoring, help to gradually deepen the understanding of landslides and other geological disasters. Thus, the Fushun west open pit mining activities undermine the internal structure of rock and has become one of the incentives of landslides and ground surface water activities, while the expansion of underground mined area is associated with the emergence of cracks and ground subsidence. The detailed engineering geological zoning has been done to the Fushun west open pit mine area, and the preparation of a full map has been completed. Database management module and the data preprocessing module of GIS spatial database link to prediction module through the interface by the use of COM and OLE automation technology. After the forming of the database, query and analysis functions are set up and network database system is produced. Prediction module is another main part of the landslide monitoring and prediction system of the north slope of Fushun west open pit which parallels with the monitoring module. Because of the introduction of more theory, the prediction function is more comprehensive. Prediction module is divided into time prediction module and spatial prediction module. The two major modules are separately divided into macro prediction, long term prediction, mid short term prediction and flood season rainfall prediction, disaster prediction. In the time prediction module, macro prediction sets the weight for the spatial information to make the comprehensive evaluation of landslide situation and identify the initial stage of landslide. Long term prediction uses the combination of limit analysis method and classical limit equilibrium method (Sarma, Janbu, Bishop) with gray theoretical model as a test module. Mid short term prediction takes quadratic exponential smoothing method as the main method, which is combined with nonlinear regression analysis, normal probability distribution and the quadratic curve fitting, based on static GPS monitoring points database, to judge deformation accelerated rate and predict sliding time depending on criterions. Correspondingly, flood season rainfall prediction makes analysis by the exponential function relationship between landslide displacement and rainfall factor. Through the entity-relational data model (E-R model) method, disaster comprehensive information, the disaster extent, disaster representation and impact intensity of landslide are predicted.The above prediction modules are practically applied in the north slope of Fushun west open pit landslide monitoring and prediction work. The results of data between 2007 and 2010 show the existence of instability in the section II and X.To make the system fast, accurate and beautiful, the appearance of the interface is designed. Through the visual development research, the popular image processing Googleearth photos are taken as a template, and query, analysis and management of drilling and profile information can be done in the network system.Thesis innovation:1. Division of the module processing. The system sets targeted processing module for all types of time and space characteristics of different landslides, making the system have a high degree of application and practicality. Exponential smoothing, gray theory, nonlinear regression analysis, the displacement probability distribution, rainfall correlation fitting, limit analysis, limit equilibrium and other methods are integrated, and normal probability distribution, gray theory regression analysis are used in landslide system for the first time.2. MapGIS database conversion interface makes real-time monitoring and prediction possible by forming a network database link. Through OLE automation technology and its core technology component COM object technology, the system starts MapGIS platform in the background and performs VB6.0 development in front to establish a visual image of the information system.3. Component programming, visual programming. Data processing uses Delphi language development. Spatial analysis uses object oriented programming, structured programming and powerful data access features such as VB6.0 for integrating development. Development of Database Management such as E-R model, data preprocessing and improving print output module adapt to all kinds of landslides and the various stages of monitoring and prediction.4. Designing different types of prediction models according to different monitoring methods, designing different types of databases according to different time periods.5. Through the fusion of application software, the other popular professional softwares like MapGIS, AutoCAD, Matlab and Googleearth let the system meet the requirements of different users.