| Sanjiang Plain area is 10.88×104km2, which lied in northeast of Heilongjiang Province.After 50 years' development, Sanjiang plain has become the most important commodity grain base of our country. Sanjiang Plain now has cultivated area 3.51×104km2, total grain yield beyond 128.81 ×108kg, population over 825×104. In addition, the largest area wetland in our nation is also at Sanjiang Plain. With social economy developing and national grain safety reserves demand increasing at high speed, the requirement of water resources becoming larger than before. Sanjiang Plain has become deficient in water resources great extent of exploit and utilization, one of water environment problem severity.This dissertation according to actual situation and problem of Sanjiang Plain, we take regional water cycle theory as supervise, in the light of social.economy and ecology overall sustainable development evaluate and assign groundwater abundance. By using GIS theory, hydrological science, groundwater hydrodynamics, numerical method, mathematical statistics, neural network, operations research evaluate and assign groundwater abundance. This work has crucial theoretical and pratical significance to bring region superiority into full play, can ensure economy and agriculture of Sanjiang Plain developing sustainable, can also solve national grain contradictions between supply and demand.Sanjiang Plain groundwater lies key position in whole water supply,about 90% city exploitate groundwater as major water supply,groundwater supply hold total water supply 63.54%.So government,administering agency and scientific institutions have pay close attention to the utilize problem induced by groundwater mining. This region has been put fourth regional groundwater resource evaluation from year 1956 to 2002. These evaluation all take Quaternary groundwater resources as exploited study objectives, evaluate plains and montanic groundwater separately, didn't consider overall portray groundwater hydrological system relation between input and output, couldn't simulate groundwater hydrological process with circumstance fluctuation. Therefore, it's necessary to reevaluate Sanjiang Plain's groundwater resources on the basis of predecessors' study.This dissertation mentioned Sanjiang Plain climatic characteristics of seasonal drought recently and some regional envirogeological problem caused by groundwater mine, make a systematic exploration in regional environgeological condition, groundwater system characteristics, regional transformation relation of meteoric water - surface water - groundwater, evaluate and forecast groundwater dynamic state, regional water resource sustainable assignment. These studies made such innovating achievements as follows:1. Using cartographical data processing model analyze groundwater system characteristics, build dominant river spatial distributed trendcy model, apply Q-Q plot verify geographical datum'sreliability, make surface feature zoning, use Kriging interpolation method generating continuous groundwater system, creat TIN model of study area,applicate visibile analysis the rationality of observation well layout. All these make consider effect and lay a calculated foundation for build distributed groundwater model.2. Build distributed three-dimensional transient physical model compound evaluate Quaternary and Tertiary groundwater resources. Model recoganize and verify indicate that mathematical model, boundary condition, hydrogeologic parameter, source and remit are accord with reality. This method can solve the problem of pore water and fault water coexit region evaluating, can simulating large scale region groundwater system dynamics.3. Apply random model predict precipitation and regional groundwater mine, integrate random model with distributed model build random-deterministric coupled model analyze groundwater resources supply and demand prospect with society, economy and environment developing. Use Self-Exciting Threshold Auto-Regreesive rainfall predict model according to mutually condition mechanism in groundwater system dynamic probe into recent 40 years basin rainfall evolution trendcy, and forecast 2010 rainfall. Choose Radial Basis Founction artificial neural network establish groundwater mining predict model. According to study area actual circumstance discrete predicted rainfall and mine, coupled with distributed model as ahead to analyze regional groundwater system developing trendcy of year 2010.4. Extend groundwater resource assignment range from social-economic water utilization to regional social economy system and ecological environment system. This paper use complex method solve water resources sustainable administering purpose program model, the model on account of distributed groundwater evaluation system ahead. Make a systematic study the present situation, groundwater evolution problem and sustainable utilization, can help realize harmonious development in water resource-social economy-ecological environment.
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