Study On Economical Forecasting Method Of Oil Field Exploration And Production

It is well known that the economic evaluation report is the insurance certificate to the investor of petroleum E&P project as its complexities, uncertainities and high risk. The efficiency of the economic evaluation depends on the reasonability, accuracy and the flexibility of the evaluation results to the risky environment.Integrated reservoir management theory and lots of related technical paper is referenced in this research, and a economic dynamic forecasting method is developed based on the production cost analysis and the financial evaluation. A cost model is put forth and the relationship between cost and production is analysised, as the result, production planning is optimized.In this research, the following jobs are completed:(1) Cost structure model is built, and the cost is divided into oil rate related, well number related and liquid rate related. The rated cost and planned cost of production is calculated through the adjustment to each cost item. Furthermore, the disadvantages of currently cost model is analysised;(2) Cost alternation model is built, combine the theory of index analysis, each factor which related to the production cost is discussed, and the strategy to reduce the exploitation cost is put forth.(3) Cost control model is built, and the current status and cost trend is analysised through looking ino the internal structure of cost. The impact to the change of unit cost from each single cost item is investigate and the core factor is found, which is the main subject to control the cost.(4) Technical and economic evaluation index system is built and the investment, cost, expense and the benefit is calculated through the economic feasiblity research, marginal benefit analysis, economic dynamic forecasting.(5) A new economic evaluation system is built based on different dimension and different point of view. The integrated dimensionless effective function is applied to weight the add of each index. The optimized planning is selected through sorting.(6) A real example of Yumen oil field is applied, with the economic limitation analysis and the uncertainities analysis, the relationship between the field operation, cost and production rate is analysised, and the development plan is optimized.