| Nowadays, with the structure of the system become complex more and more, and the function become more and more perfect. Any system is a subsystem of the community system, its operation will be some effect to the society. Once the brittle of subsystems excited, it will result in brittleness of the system excitation, resulting in system crash, bringing immeasurable impact and losses. Brittleness of complex systems means to the subsystem within a complex system collapse by outside interference, causing the collapse of a complex chain reaction within the system, leading to the collapse of the whole system. Analysis of complex system brittleness excitation causes and mechanism of brittle source identification and evaluation of the conditions necessary for brittle and so excited with the brittle-related problems is to recognize and control of complex systems means necessary.In this paper, the complex system is research object, in complex nonlinear systems, emergence, hierarchy, relevance and dynamic nature of the basic features of the foundation, analysis and research the brittleness of another character of complex systems. Specific performance of a complex system brittleness is a subsystem for the system under the influence of outside interference sudden collapse, thereby affecting the other subsystems with associated collapse. When the complex system's several key subsystems crash, the entire complex system will enter into a state of disorder, unable to complete its normal function, that is, the collapse of the entire system. In this paper, based on the theory of brittle, construct complex systems brittle tree model, improve the modeling theory of complex system's brittleness, define the importance of brittle structure, an important degree of probability of brittle and brittle critical degree. Respectively, from the structure of the brittle model, probability of brittle factors influence the probability of system collapse and brittle factors change the probability of collapse probability rate on three aspects of the rate of change of complex system brittleness factors discussed in the course of the role of a system crash, and the East China Sea gas explosion accidents and system as an example of quantitative analysis. And also provides theoretical basis for the Source from the perspective of developing brittle accident prevention measures;While in the complex system brittleness model, on gas density in the accumulation of subsystem, looking for possible ways and measures of preventing gas explosion, using Chaos theory and neural network technology to achieve the gas concentration signal change trend forecast. According to change of gas concentration, gas concentration in the possible accumulation of the future time, strictly well-developed accident prevention strategies and provide theoretical guidance; improve the coal mine accident brittle model, defines the basic fragility of complex systems and the associated concept of brittleness, evaluation of coal mine safety identified the various security levels based on the scope of brittleness, Mine gas emission by calculating the geological structure, discharge, etc. Evaluation of the association crisp ten degrees, the brittleness of the natural conditions of coal mine risk evaluation. According to the modeling analysis of East China Sea gas explosion accidents and system ,we will calculate the result of gas explosion accident causation factors in the system in all brittle structure, system crash, crash probability probability and the sensitivity of the important degree of difference. Considering that three of the three factors , making control strategy of from heavy to light on comprehensive, while proposed the implementation of the gas monitoring device on the gas concentration to predict the trend of the measures. According to forecast results, making a more comprehensive control strategy, achieving the prevention of gas explosion, improving the monitoring equipment design ideas, and further improve the reliability of gas explosion monitoring. |
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