Research On The Total Amount Allocation Methods Of The Water Pollutant Among Different Provinces

Total amount allocation of the water pollutants in China is in essence belongs to a kind of target-set pollutant management models. Currently, total amount allocation scheme design mainly considers the respective economic performance of the provinces, municipalities and districts (namely, provincial regions), and was realized by the negotiation between the MEP and the environmental departments of the provincial regions, more subjective decisive factors are involved in the process of allocation scheme design, this brought tremendous dispute amongst the provincial regions. So, how to design a scientific and reasonable scheme that is easy to be accepted by the provincial regions in fact put forwards a big challenge to the China's water pollutant total amount management. This work aims to take the COD allocation from the national to the provincial regions as a case, to explore the allocation indicators, the heterogeneous characteristics of the provincial regions, to construct the pollutant total amount allocation models with no subjective decision factors involved and the correlation calculation models between the COD emission parameter and the economic parameters like per capita GDP, to analyze the feasibility of the constructed allocation method, and the dynamic changing characteristics of the economic parameters in correlation to the allocation scheme, and eventually to provide the theoretic and technical supports to the China's pollutant total amount control management.Firstly, the work analyzes the COD total amount allocation indicators and the heterogeneous characteristics of the provincial regions under the respective allocation indicators. Including determining the key allocation factors and indicators, designing allocation rules, exploring variance extent of each indicator and heterogeneous manifestation of each provincial regions under the seven respective allocation indicators. The work states that the allocation scheme design should be taken a systematic idea and taken heterogeneous characteristics of the provincial regions as the bases, taken the fairness as the prerequisite, should facilitate COD reduction and boost the improvement of the environmental quality. The results showed that factors influencing COD emission and reduction mainly including economic scales and structure, population, technical improvements, pollution control capabilities, water quality and natural resources endowment. With a systematic analysis of the indicators used to characterize the factors, the paper determines the indicator systems initially, by the statistic correlation test with SPSS software, seven indicators were selected to consist of the COD total amount allocation indicator system, which are per capita GDP, per capita COD emission intensity, added value proportion of the water pollution key industries compare to GDP, pressure index of the water environment, water resources quantity of the per unit of land. The former five indicators are positive indicators, the later two are negative indicators. Calculation results of the variance coefficient of the different COD allocation indicators showed that variance extent of each indicator is obvious, and that of the pressure index of the water environment, water resources quantity of the per unit of land, and per capita GDP is relatively higher, which means that the three indicators are relatively important in the process of the COD total amount allocation scheme design. Calculation results of the relative difference index of the different allocation indicators showed that the manifestation of the provincial regions differs greatly, which means that the various provincial regions' heterogeneity emerges a discrete distribution. In conclusion, the paper states that the indicators difference and the manifestation difference under different indicators of the various provincial regions should be placed more emphasis in the process of the COD total amount allocation scheme design.Secondly, the paper introduced the information entropy and Gini coefficient theory into the pollutant total amount allocation fields, and COD total amount allocation econometric models were designed, the allocation results with the two models differ obviously. The allocation results based on information entropy keep well consistency with the strategic requirements of the China's water environment management in the 12th period, but the allocation results based on Gini coefficient theory do not show the consistency. With a further comparative analysis of the two methods using the COD total amount allocation scheme in the 11th five environmental planning, the same conclusion could be obtained. Moreover, the allocation results based on the information entropy keep well consistency with the qualitative analysis results of the variance coefficient and relative difference indexes method, these indicate that the allocation method based on information entropy is more applicable to the China's COD total amount allocation. Comparative analysis between the COD total amount allocation scheme in the 12th five period based on the information entropy theory and the planned COD total amount allocation scheme in the 11th five period show that overall spatial pollution reduction pattern in the eastern China and the key provincial regions like Shanxi and Guangxi will not change, though the reduction ratios in these regions are keeping decreasing and the reduction ratios in the western and southern China begin to increase.Thirdly, panel data analysis to the secondary industry proportion and per capita GDP with COD emission amount in the 30 provincial regions shows, that long term steady relation between the two economic parameters and COD emission amount exists. With analysis of the constructed equation by the statistic data simulation of the economic parameters and environmental parameters, the paper concludes that totally proportion of the secondary industry will decrease in the eastern provincial regions, but most provincial regions in the western China will increase, the increasing level differs great amongst the provincial regions, that in the Inner Mongolia and Hubei is relatively higher, and that in Hebei, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Henan province etc is relatively lower, that in Jiangsu is the highest in the eastern China. Changing pattern of the Per capita GDP increasing ratio in the eastern, central and western China in not obvious, per capita GDP increasing ratio distribution in the most provincial regions lies in the range of 20%-40%, but that in some provincial regions differs great, as that in Hubei, Yunnan is above 100%, but in Beijing, Hebei,Gansu, Qinghai is lower than 15%. Construction of single variable responsive function with emission efficiency characterized with the GDP contribution of per unit of COD emission and the time parameter through simulating the emission efficiency in time trend of the 30 provincial regions was realized, further analysis of that function could be found it follows a exponential change, but errors happens when using the function to analyze the trend of per unit of COD emission, that means when design the COD total amount control scheme should get rid of the idea of overemphasizing the GDP performance of the provincial regions, and indicators reflecting the regional heterogeneity should be chosed to be used in the process of the COD total amount allocation scheme design.