Study On Ecological Security Assessment Of Shandong Province

Shandong Province is a coastal province in East China. Situated in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, it borders on the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. Shandong Province is located between 38°32'24"and 36°32'21" north latitude, 117°51'40" and 121°39'07" east longitude. It is 700 km wide from east to west and 420 km long from north to south. With a total land area of 156,700 km~2, it makes up 1.6% of the territory of China. The population of is over 90 million, which is about 6.9% of the whole population of China. Shandong province is a strong province for its economy. In recent years, the economy develops rapidly. However, with the appearance of frequent ecological disaster and serious environmental pollution, ecological security has become the restricted factor of sustainable development in Shandong province.Security usually means a state of an object without any threat. Ecological security means the state needed by the development of a country or region with the environment without any destruction or threat. With the increment of population and development of economy, the pressure on environment becomes more and more heavier because of human disturbance. Environment pollution and ecological disaster have threaten the regional development, national security and social advancement. Ecological security, which is the important content of national security or regional security, has become a hot problem needed to be solved urgently in academic and practical levels.In this dissertation, we collected the statistic datum and analyzed the current situation of ecological environment of Shandong province. The analysis included land usage and degradation, vegetation situation and dynamic, water resource situation, ecologicalenvironment situation of wetland, biodiversity protection and environment pollution situation. Then, we found out the main problems that impact the sustainable development of Shandong province. Based on the preliminary analysis of current situation of ecological environment, we obtained the academic basis and background support to build the ecological security assessment system of Shandong province.Based on the analysis of ecological situation and the consideration of society &economy development, compared with the indicator systems of ecological environment assessment, we chose the indicators for assessing the ecological security of Shandong province. In this dissertation, 24 indicators consisted of annual temperature, annual precipitation, surface water current depth, water area, plowland area, irrigation area, forest coverage, Saline-alkaline land, soil erosion, discharging intention of waste water, emission intention of waste gas, discharging intention of waste residue, applying intention of fertilizer, applying intention of pesticide, applying intention of agricultural plastic, population density, natural population increase rate, safe coefficient of food, GDP, financial income, net income per farmer, educational expenditure, teachers per ten thousand people and physician per ten thousand people.After ascertaining each assessment indicator, we adopted the method of Delphi and analytic hierarchy process to make sure the weight of the indicator system. Based on translating the experts' opinions into identification matrix, we calculated the weight of each indicator. Then we took a coincident test of identification matrix in order to make sure that the weight decided by each expert is effectual. Finally, we used weight average method to get the final weight. According to the disposal of the single indicator and the usual assessment method, we got the ecological security degree of Shandong province. In order to evaluate the hierarchy of ecological security degree, we classified the result into five levels, which included severe dangerous, dangerous, pre-alarm, sub-secure and secure respectively. Among 17 cities, Weihai and Laiwu ranked top two with the state of sub-secure and Ji'ning ranked last with the state of dangerous. The other 14 cities were in the state of pre-alarm with the degree between 0.4-0.6. As a whole, ecological security degree of Shandong province is relatively inlow level the state of pre-alarm. The ecological security degree of Shandong province, in despite of frequent variety in recent years, was still in a slow decline as a whole. Furthermore, we chose three typical cities, Jinan, Qingdao, and Heze, as case analysis of dynamic.In order to get more information from this study, we adopted method of risk analysis, performed by powerful software-FaultTree+ V6.0. After constituting ecological security model and following the mathematic principle, we got the result of risk analysis, which is a little different with the result of ecological security assessment result. From the result, we found that among the risk degrees of natural ecological environment, the city of Dongying was the most dangerous with the highest risk degree, while Binzhou ranked second, followed by cities of Qingdao, Weifang, Taian and Dezhou. With the analysis of ecological disaster risk degree, Linyi was the most dangerous while Yantai and Weifang ranked second. Ji'ning was the most dangerous with the highest pollution risk degree in the assessment of the pollution risk degree, while Yantai and Weifang ranked the less dangerous. In the assessment of social and economical risk degree, Heze was the most dangerous and Rizhao was the second.Compared with the result of ecological security degree, Weihai is still the best with the least risk. However Linyi and Ji'ning were in the state of highest risk, in which were different with the rank of ecological security. Compared the result between risk analysis and ecological security degree, we found that ecololgial security degree analysis represented the current situation of single indicator while the risk analysis represented both the current situation of single indicator and the relationship among indicators.Based on the analysis of the current situation of ecological environment, the assessment of ecological security of Shandong province and the identification of the main impact factors, we presented the ecological division of Shandong province, considering the studies in past 50 years. In this dissertation, Shandong province was divided into six parts, consisting of Middle Shandong region, East Shandong region, West and South Shandong region, North Shandong region, Seashore region andoffshore and island region. After the analysis of the environment problem, combined with the assessment of ecological security, we suggested some constructive countermeasure to each ecological region specifically.In allusion to the result of ecological security assessment and risk degree analysis, we gave some reasonable and constructive countermeasure to the improvement of ecological security of Shandong province, which will be benefit for the future development of Shandong province. We should take the scientific development theory as our guiding ideology for the harmonious development of economy and environment. We should supervise and take protection of environment according to laws. We should enhance the investment on ecological protection and construction. We should pay more attention to the study of scientific study. We should take more practical action in the construction and protection. We should enhance the ecological security knowledge among public. We should build pre-alarm and prevention system of ecological security and develop the international commutations.