The Study On Earthquake Disasters Of The Energy Supply Systems

Along with the development of the national economy construction, the need and the dependence of society and public for the energy supply systems become more and more big. The nearer year domestic and foreign destructiveness earthquake harm indicate that the strong earthquake can create the huge destruction to the energy supply systems, thus causes the serious secondary disaster and the economic loss, to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the public security have enormous influence. The researches that involve some key science problems of the energy supply systems earthquake safety become important and urgent. Recent year, the international communities strengthen to supply to research work of the energy supply systems earthquake disaster. But because of the multiplicity and the complexity of the energy supply systems composing, until now, lack the systematic research method system to the energy supply systems earthquake disaster, a lot of key science problems that the energy supply systems earthquake safety still urgent demand to be solved.This article selects the petroleum and natural gas systems of the energy supply systems as research important point, has carried on the system summary and the thorough analysis to the domestic and foreign correlation research, in this foundation, by the theoretical analysis primarily, and combine the earthquake harms investigation and the numerical simulation, has conducted the research to some key questions. The main work of this article can be generalized as follows:1. The petroleum and natural gas systems earthquake disaster mechanism and disaster own characteristic are studied, the petroleum and natural gas systems earthquake disaster mechanism model diagram is given, carried on the discussion to the system main secondary disaster characteristic and the correlation elementary theory.2. The new earthquake secondary disaster risk analysis method and the appraisal process in view of the petroleum and natural gas systems are established, the risk analysis method and the appraisal process of this article first considered the earthquake occurs the risk and the earthquake's destruction toward structures and the equipments of the system inside, and carried on the risk analysis and the appraisal regarding the system secondary disaster application probabilistic analysis method. Thus provide the feasible method and the way for this kind of complex disaster risk appraisal.3. In formerly researches regarding in the petroleum and natural gas systems earthquake disaster, often only were the isolated research one kind of or several kind of disaster forms, but regarding the overall system earthquake disaster occurrence and developing process lacks systematic, comprehensive and macroscopic research methods. This article introduces the concept of the disaster chain, proposed the earthquake disaster chain mentality and the method, and use for to study the petroleum and natural gas systems the earthquake disaster. Provide one kind of new mentality and the method to study the earthquake disaster developing process.4. The concept of the earthquake disaster interaction is proposed for the first time, the interactions of various disasters in the earthquake disaster developing process are studied. Appeared many kinds of disaster form in the energy supply system earthquake disaster developing process, these disasters occur with the development are not one kind of sole transmission process, but is relates mutually, affects mutually. The result makes the scale of the disaster continuously extended and the consequence is more serious. The research affects mutually which to the disaster is helpful to us accurately understands the system earthquake disaster comprehensively the developing process, in order to take the corresponding measure, control the development of disaster chain, thus reduces the loss of the disaster.5. The numerical models of three kinds of earthquake main secondary disaster are studied, available carry on the numerical simulation to the fire, the detonation and the poison gas. The probabilistic model of the system possibly to have the fire is established, the fast estimate model of the explosion lose and the diffusion model of poison gas leak are established. The risky target and the high dangerous region determination method which the secondary fire occurred are given. Between the explosive dangerous material and the TNT blasting explosive transformed relations is established, so long as the determination dangerous material fuel value and the quality, may fast determine the die region, the severely wounded region and the slight wound region by the explosion. The simple method for the earthquake secondary explosion disaster emergency appraisal is provided.6. The numerical simulation and the dynamic simulation of the earthquake secondary fire, the explosion, poison gas leak and diffusion are studied. The three models of virulent gas leak and diffusion are established, respectively is: continual stable state leak and diffusion model, limited period stable state leak and diffusion model, transient state leak and diffusion model. Under certain diffusion model premise, six main influence parameters are determined, respectively are: poison gas type, diffusion source form, atmospheric stability, nozzle highly, blowout speed and wind speed and wind direction. The different parameter change regarding the poison gas diffusion influences that are simulated. For the flammable explosive material that become gaseous state after leak, also may apply this kind of method to carry on the simulation, to make sure the distributed scope and the density of dangerous material.