Research On System Risk Assessment Based On General Set Pair Analysis

In the dissertation, the open problems on the application of the system risk assessment and the multi-attribute decision-making in the SPA theory are addressed. The theories of GSPA in the system risk assessment and the multi-attribute decision-making are also proposed.(1) Advantages and disadvantages of the existing linear standardization methods of index are analyzed. A modified linear scale transformed method is proposed. It not only maintains the original index size, but also avoids the situation where the index is unable to the linear standardization method when the index is negative. The process of range transformation is discussed in detail. Considering the situation that the characteristic differs when the difficulty of the same safety level is enhanced under a certain condition, the nonlinear standardization methods based on the variable index function and the variable parabola function are proposed. It is concluded that the latter is bigger on the discretization degree than the former, and the latter is more suitable for the index standardization.(2) The existing weight determination methods are discussed. The process that the sector weight is transformed to the precise weigh process is discussed from certainty and uncertainty aspects with the GSPA method. The GSPA-IAHP subjective weight is proposed. It avoids disadvantages of the single expert that is affected by the professional standard, individual hobby and so on. In view of the characteristics that documents of determining the expert weight by the sector uncertainty judgment information are fewer, a new determining expert weight method by the sector uncertainty judgment information is proposed. By the analysis, it is suitable also for the determining expert weight method by the precise judgment information.(3) In view of the existing insufficiencies of the SPA theory in related concepts, the GSPA theory and the related concepts are proposed, mainly including GSP, GSPP, GSPPP, GSPOP, and GPF. The GSPP graduation situations of several special connection degrees have been also discussed. It enhances the related concepts of GSPA. (4) The SPA insufficiencies in the system risk assessment application are analyzed. Determination methods of IDO connection degree are discussed. A new method of IDO connection degree based on the trigonometric function change is proposed. In order to weigh the disadvantages and advantages of determining IDO connection degree methods, the concept of generalized connection entropy is put forward. The generalized connection entropy is smaller. The uncertainty of the system risky grade is smaller. The IDO connection degree determination method is better. The single level GSPA assessment model and multi-level GSPA assessment model are discussed. The IDO most superior pattern recognition model is proposed, and system risky grade is judged by the IDO most superior pattern recognition model composite index, which provides a new way for the system risk assessment.(5) The GSPA applicability in the cluster aspect is discussed. A new measuring method for connection degree similarity is proposed. The IDO dynamic cluster method based on the measure method of connection degree similarity is put forward. It provides a new method for the multi-index sample cluster analysis.(6) Disadvantages of SPA in the multi-attribute decision making are discussed. The multi-attribute decision making model based on the GSPA-TOPSIS and relative subordinate multi-attribute decision making model based on the GSPA are proposed Two comparisons are conducted, It is concluded that the latter is higher in the discretization degree, apt to make a decision to the former. The weight multi-attribute decision making method in the defectiveness is discussed. The IDO overlapping iteration multi-objective decision-making model is proposed. It is more comprehensive.(7) The system risk dynamic assessment model based on the GSPA-MARKOV is proposed. The model assesses the system risk dynamically by the MARKOV chain, and the final system risky is determined.