Study On Scenario Analysis And Evalualuating Theory Of Seismic Buried Personnel Based On Gis And Ca

Now, it is no mature that evaluation index system is used for scenarioes of seismic disaster in the world. It must be established disaster assessment system of seismic scenarioes to rescue personnel, quickly, in many seismic scenarioes, the buried personnel scenarioes include buried personnel distribution and casualties, etc, which are imperative important information in emergency rescue after earthquake. So, analysis and evaluation of seismic buried personnel scenarioes is primary task and issue to solve quickly.Seismic scenarios of buried personnel is a uncertain, dynamic and complex scenario system including buried personnel dynamic distribution, indoor state, collapsing situation of the building and their casualties status. The thesis aims to establish the assessment index system on the buried personnel scenarioes. The specific researches and related conclusions are as follows:At seismic time, study the buried personnel scenarioes by scenario analysis method, which describes and analyses burying seismic environment and personnel factors, the latter includes perception, awareness, behavior, individual differences, etc. Put up the basic framework of the evaluation index system of personnel buried scenario, which can evaluate the seismic scenarioes of buried personnel.Because personnel distribution is the premise of emergency, the text puts forward syncretizing data organization based on grid and vector, expands cellular automata from 5 parts, then solves problem to personnel activity from disorder of the individual to the orderly of personnel with "probability and".On basis of in-building ratio concept, set up in-building ratio regionalization by the Kriging interpolation sections in China, which makes in-building ratio continuous and all covered in space.The collapsing ratio as building damage indicators is the prerequisite and basis for buried personnel evaluation, the papers deeply studies that seismic intensity,mass media and building structure, which are looked as the similar element in two seismic affair, according to those, we can computer similarity between two seismic affair, which makes evaluation of collapsing-ratio with the most similar historic seismic affair.The conclusions is following:Firstly, the current evaluated collapsing ratio depends on the similarity and historic collapsing ratio. Secondly, the evaluation value of collapsing ratio is a interval because of the similar symmetry.Thirdly, according to hypothesis testing, relationship between the lower value of the similarity and the evaluation error realized quality control of evaluation by the lower value of the similarityIn most of buried personnel elements, in-building and collapsing ratio are thought about, which are mutually independent on affecting buried ratio.On those basis, the buried ratio model is set up.In the study course of Wenchuan earthquake, developed on the collapsing ratio calculation method for large earthquakes based on self-similar, which solve to evaluate difficulty of collapsing ratio for short of similar elements, raise evaluation efficiency of buried ratio.To solve development process of casualties scenarioes, the paper sets up the casualty index model, the specific conclusions is follows:Firstly, with the reference of the structural damage index, set up the casualty index Interval. Secondly, supposed the normal distribution between age and body mass, build up the function between the body mass index and age-type. Thirdly, without the reference, get unbiased estimates of seismic store environment with normal distribution.Use the Visual Studio 2005, ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit For Microsoft.NET Framework 9.2 and ArcGIS Engine Runtime9.2, refer to data conventions of seismic emergency basic database, plait spatial data and attribute data that analysis and evaluation systems of seismic buried personnel scenarioes need, finish the integration of GIS and CA. Design evaluation about system seismic scenarioes of buried personnel, whose functions include personnel dynamic distribute simulation, in-building ratio inquiry, collapsing ratio query and buried ratio inquiry, evaluating casualties of buried personnel, etc.