Asymmetric Demand Dilemma: The Needs And Conflicts Of Interest In The Game Of Global Climate

The paper is an attempt to make and defend the hypothesis of"asymmetrical need dilemma causes conflicts"through cases in global climate change talks, particularly between the developed countries and developing countries.Based on the three assumptions of"need hierarchy","interest defined in terms of need"and"economic person", the paper defines"asymmetrical need dilemma"as a dilemma between a group of interacting actors over a specific matter caused largely as a result of their asymmetrical needs and leveraged through the three conflict mechanisms of satisfaction expectation, satisfier vulnerability and need sensitivity. To defend its central hypothesis, the paper proceeds to the formulation and validation of three separate statements, namely (1) the more asymmetrical the needs of a group of interacting actors, the greater the differentials of satisfaction expectation among them and therefore the higher the probability of conflicts; (2) the more asymmetrical the needs of a group of interacting actors, the greater the differentials of satisfier vulnerability among them and therefore the higher the probability of conflicts and (3) the more asymmetrical the needs of a group of interacting actors, the lower the sensitivity of an actor's sensitivity to its interacting parties'needs and therefore the higher the probability of conflicts.The paper unfolds its arguments in favor of the above statements largely by analyzing and comparing need profiles of major negotiation groups in world climate change regimes, building statistical models to simulate the performances of rich and poor country groups under the same emission reduction scenario, as well as analyzing the two way insensitivities between low need and high need actors by taking special references to the disputes between the developed and developing counties. Through validation of these statements, the paper then draws the conclusion that asymmetrical need dilemma indeed in many cases build the cause of conflicts among actors, thereby effectively defending its positions.The paper also discusses several other aspects of"asymmetrical need dilemma", including the dialogue incommensurability problem in climate change talks, culture's role in need interactions as well as the dynamics for change in asymmetrical need dilemma.