VSC-IOD Model And The Research Of Industrial Investment Of Heilongjiang

As the optimization and upgrading question of industrial structure receives the attention of various fields gradually and the studies in industrial structure deepened gradually, the adjustment of the investment structure of the industry becomes more and more urgent and important. This is because the industrial investment structure is a decisive factor of the industrial structure and the industrial structure was molded out by the industrial investment structure. Observe from the dynamic angle, today's industrial structure was taken shape by the past industrial investment structure, and the change of the industrial structure in the future depends on the after industrial investment structure mainly. We can say, the forming and change of the industrial structure are decided by the industrial investment structure.At present, our country faces the historical task of building the society of well-to-do level all-sided. It is the important content of economic construction to adjust strategically national economy, optimize the industrial investment structure and realize the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. Heilongjiang Province, as the old industrial base of our country and agricultural base too, face more severe task of optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. So, it is the urgent problem for Heilongjiang Province to take measures to adjust and optimize the industrial investment structure and improve the level of the industrial structure.Leontiev's input-output theory is a strong tool what studies the development and change of industrial structure. But if we want to connect industrial structure and industrial investment structure, describe the course that the industrial structure changes with the industrial investment structure dynamically, we need the input-output model of dynamic change. This thesis leads the theory that the income plays a decision role into Leontiev's input-output model, has set up an input-output dynamic model based on variable structure control, it is VSC-IOD model. Thus industrial structure and economic indicator, such as the propensity to investment, investment structure, propensity to consumption, structure of consumption, etc. are connected, and the dynamic relation between the industrial structure and industrial investment structure is announced.The thesis has collected every data related to model of Heilongjiang, has estimated the parameter of the model, has given out the concrete form of VSC-IOD model of three times industry of Heilongjiang, and has carried on statistical check and econometrics check to the model. Use the model to predict the development trend and evolution in the future of the industrial structure of Heilongjiang, has analyzed the question existing in industrial structure and industrial investment structure. Combining the concrete conditions of Heilongjiang, the thesis has proposed the direction of the optimization and adjustment of the industrial investment structure from the angle of upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure.The thesis has compared the overall state of the industrial investment structure of Heilongjiang with the situation of the same period of domestic and developed country. At three piece of levels, namely, the investment structure of the tertiary industry, light heavy industry fixed assets investment structure and the investment structure of industrial capital construction and innovation, the thesishave carried on the comparative analysis of the domestic, world. On this grounds, the thesis put forward the problem of the industrial investment structure of Heilongjiang, further confirms the correctness of the direction of adjustment and optimization that has pointed by VSC-IOD model and makes it deeply and concretely.According to the objective and thinking of the industrial structure strategic adjusting of "tenth five", in view of existing problems and optimizing direction of the industrial investment structure, the thesis analyze the state of supply and demand of industrial investment of He...