Quantitative Evaluation Of The Bidding Risk In International Large Civil Engineering Contracting Project

From the views of contractors, the dissertation is focused on the quantitative risk evaluation methods in the bidding process of international lager civil engineering project. Considering the characteristic of international contacting project, the mathematical models which describe the objects more accurately are established to quantitate the risk. The study methods are for the contractors' reference, meanwhile they are valuable for cost engineering and consulting engineering etc.Chapter 1,introduce the background and present of the study. Give the main content and technique route of the dissertation.Chapter 2,based on the analysis of international engineering bidding process, bidding cost models and the study present of competitive bidding theory, the paper analyses the structure, character, measural index and influence factors of the bidding risk systematically, and puts forward the view that the bidding risk is composed of project choosing risk, cost estimating risk, duration estimating risk and construction plan choosing risk.Chapter 3,pointing to the two difference situations in the process of contractors' choosing project, An improved model based on AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a model based on grey connection analysis are used to quantitate the risk separately.Chapter 4,introduce the concept of cost estimating risk to describe the accuracy of cost estimation and analyse the influence factors on cost estimation .Meanwhile the three methods are proposed to calculate the correlation between the different influence factors. Establish a cost estimating model based on Partial Least Square Regression. Through the case study, contrast the simulation results of the two models which establish based on MATLAB/SIMULINK under the condition of factors dependence and independence. The sensitivity of cost estimation is also studied. Chapter 5,study the correlation deeply between project duration and cost(time-cost trade-off). Use the additional GERT network to calculate the duration risk considering the correlation. Try to solve the optimal time-cost trade-off problem in additional GERT.Chapter 6,use ANP(Analytic Network Process)theory to evaluate the risk of construction plan. For rank becomes reversed when calculating AHP model and ANP model with the same data, it proves the priority of the plan has the directly connection with the model whether considering dependence and feedback of elements or not. Chapter 7,summarize the whole dissertation and give some suggestions to future research in bidding risk field.