Comprehensive Evaluation Research On Investment Return And Implementation Risk Of CCS Project

Carbon dioxide capture and storage technology(CCS) is a kind of highly efficient and reliable technology to reduce emissions. It is mainly composed of three parts: capture, transportation and storage. It is an important means to realize large-scale carbon reduction through the CCS technology. At present, countries around the world are actively developing the applied research of CCS technology. The carbon emissions of China has accounted for almost a third of the total carbon emissions in the world, the new carbon emissions account for 60% of the world’s total emissions. So we are even more urgent need to effectively reduce the pressure about the carbon reduction of our country. But subject to CCS cost reasons, most of the existing CCS projects still belong to the demonstration projects led by the government, the commercial application of CCS may still face many risks. Many of the existing research results are mostly concentrated in the following several aspects, such as storage site selection, CO2 leakage risk analysis, capture technology development and so on. These studies focused on specific technical perspective. We rarely found the commercial risk analysis research about CCS projects. But business investors focus on not only the technical feasibility and security of the project itself, but also more focus on the actual problem of investment, such as investment security and investment income,etc. So, this paper will focus on the research of the investment income risk model and the implementation risk model when the CCS project will be commercialized.Take the CCS project investment as the research object, from the perspective of project implementation, we studied the risk evaluation when the investors invest the CCS projects. It aimed at the commercial application of CCS project for risk evaluation. First, we used real options to evaluate the investment income risk of the CCS project. Second, we used the integrated cloud model to evaluate implementation risk of the CCS project. Third, we used interval type-2 fuzzy decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(IT2 FDMTEL) method to analyze the factors for the risk of the CCS project. At last, we put forward a new response cloud model based on the above theory, and apply it to the CCS projects investment decision-making evaluation for getting the best investment opportunities in the future.In this paper, the main research results include:(1) Analyze the related factors of CCS project investment income, constructed the CCS investment income risk evaluation model. After analyzed the influence factors of CCS projects, we selected and established one of the most critical three factors: technical progress, electricity price subsidies and carbon trading. Then, we established the income model, and analysised revenue by using trigeminal tree model of real options. According to the initial value of project options to evaluate the investment income, the result analysis shows that this method has good evaluation result.(2)According to the risk evaluation requirements of CCS project implementation, we constructed the evaluation index system of CCS project, and established the CCS project risk evaluation model based on cloud model. Rough set method is used to determine the weight of evaluation index, and the comprehensive cloud model is used to construct the evaluation matrix, and the risk evaluation of CCS project is realized by using the synthetic operator. Because the method is not ideal in processing the error and randomness, so we further put forward the improvement methods of CCS integrated cloud model, by stratifying the evaluation index, step by step to generate comprehensive cloud, it improved the comprehensive effect of the CCS project evaluation. Compared with the model before and after improvement, it is confirmed that the improved model has better accuracy.(3) The traditional fuzzy system is not good enough to deal with the uncertainty, type-2 fuzzy logic system can make up for this defect. So, we put forward a new method by combined the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with IT2 FDMTEL method, and used it to analyze the factors for the risk of the CCS project. The trapezoidal fuzzy number is used into the fuzzy hierarchy analysis method, the interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy number is used into the risk evaluation method, then it can better solve the defects of traditional evaluation model, such as evaluation grade is not accurate, evaluation is uncertain and the comments are vague. Compared with the traditional risk evaluation method, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified by an example analysis.(4) The real option evaluation method of investment decision can only judge the decision problems of initial moment, so this paper put forward the concept of a response mapping cloud, and applied it to choose investment decision time of CCS project. We can use it to choose the best investment time in the future. Finally, we did the regression analysis for the decision-making response mapping cloud model of the CCS project, and carried on the forecast. The analysis result shows that the regression model has high fitting degree. We can use the forecast model of response mapping cloud to forecast the future investment timing simulation.