Research On Management Method Oriented To Group Public Emergency

Group Public Emergency (GPE) is a special unconventional public emergency. The practical effects of both crisis control and emergency rescue highly depend on emergency management method which is implemented. Once a significant GPE occurs, it is a great challenge for governmental departments and scientific workers, that is, how to effectively intervene and control its occurrence and evolution, and how to timely put forward strategies about crisis control and emergency rescue.Combined with characteristics of GPE in China under the new situation, the following are major aspects in this thesis:(1) the basic demands on emergency management oriented to GPE is analyzed;(2) the data preprocessing method about emergency management oriented to GPE is researched;(3) the decision model of emergency management based on multi-criteria is proposed;(4) the design method for emergency management information system oriented to GPE is researched, which is intended to meet the linkage among multiple places and multiple departments;(5) the effectiveness evaluation index system for emergency management information system is constructed; and (6) this thesis also studies the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation model based on evidential reasoning method. We hope the emergency management capability of government policy makers will be enhanced in terms of theories and methods in this thesis. The detailed content and novelties are as followed:(1) Studies on the mechanism of emergency management oriented to GPE:First, the thesis classifies the general GPE based on the analysis of basic characteristics of GPE. Second, the evolution mechanism of GPE is analyzed according to the following two aspects:the process of emergency management and emergency diffusion. Third, we discuss multiple levels linkage mechanism of emergency management oriented to GPE.(2) Studies on the decision method of emergency management oriented to GPE:First, the thesis analyzes the decision characteristics of emergency management, such as uncertainty, multiple attribute. Second, the tactics of data collecting and preprocessing on multi-source multi-scale emergency management are studied. Then, the decision model of emergency management oriented to GPE based on multi-criteria based on multiple attribute matched.(3) Studies on the design method for emergency management information system oriented to GPE:First, the thesis analyzes the characteristics of emergency management information system oriented to GPE from the perspective of complex management system. Then, the thesis researches the design method of this information system according to multi-agent modeling and UML modeling. And (4) studies on the effectiveness evaluation method on emergency management information system oriented to GPE:First, this thesis analyzes some factors which influence on efficiency and success rate, such as the emergency rescue capability, decision-making alternatives, deployment capabilities, technological means, and etc. Second, this thesis constructs the effectiveness evaluation index system for emergency management information system. Then, the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation model and its algorithm based on evidential reasoning method are studied.This thesis extends the research on emergency management oriented to GPE, enriches the design method system of emergency management information system oriented to GPE, and provides a systematic solution to comprehensive effectiveness evaluation on emergency management information system oriented to GPE.