Study On The Mechanism Of Service Outsourcing Industry And Output Growth

The economic theory has not formed a unified understanding about the relationship between service outsourcing industry and economic operation.Some scholars believe that the service outsourcing industry is an inverse economic cycle industry,which can still maintain a trend of growth in economic recession.While some studies show that the relationship between the development of service outsourcing industry and the macro-economy shows a general consistency.With the development of China's economy entering into a new normal state,defining the mechanism of service outsourcing industry to output growth is helpful for the government to locate the service outsourcing industry accurately,formulate appropriate industrial policies,and improve the effectiveness and pertinence of the policy during the transition from the manufacturing industry to the service economy.Therefore,studying the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic effect between the service outsourcing industry and output growth is an ideal perpespective to analyze the relationship between service outsourcing industry and output growth.Based on the investigation of the effect of service outsourcing industry on regional output growth,this paper analyses systematically the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic effect of service outsourcing industry and output growth,and further explores the mechanism of service outsourcing industry to output growth.First,this paper introduces the development of service outsourcing industry from five aspects: scale,competitiveness,practitioners,structure and policy.Based on this,this section focuses on the analysis of regional differences effect of service outsourcing industry on output growth.By constructing the threshold regression model,21 models of service outsourcing demonstration cities are divided into two categories: high speed growth area and low speed growth area,and parameter estimation is carried out.The results of empirical analysis show that there is a significant threshold effect in the binary model that includes the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of value-added of service outsourcing industry.That is,in the different level of service outsourcing industry development,the interaction mechanism between service outsourcing industry and output growth do exist a significant difference.In the area that service outsourcing industry has a high speed growth,the effect of growth rate of value-added of service outsourcing industry on GDP is significantly greater than that in the area that service outsourcing industry has a low speed growth.This shows that the service outsourcing industry in China has shown a certain degree of spatial agglomeration effect.The effect of service outsourcing industry on the economy is more obvious in the eastern part of China.But at the same time,it is not difficult to see that the demonstration cities of service outsourcing in the middle and western regions already have differential advantages,such as Chongqing and Wuhan.Secondly,based on the elaboration of the interaction mechanism between service outsourcing industry and output growth,this paper tests the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic effect between service outsourcing industry and output growth.On the one hand,by constructing the linear cointegration equation and nonlinear mean regression equation based on ESTAR-ECM,cointegration test for service outsourcing industry output and GDP is carried out,in order to study the long-term equilibrium relationship between service outsourcing industry and output growth.Whether based on linear cointegration test or nonlinear cointegration test,the test results show that output growth has a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship with the service outsourcing industry.On the other hand,by constructing linear and nonlinear Granger causality test statistics,this paper examines the short-term dynamic effect of service outsourcing industry and output growth.The linear Granger causality test result shows that there is a strong two-way Granger causality between the growth rate of service outsourcing industry output and the growth rate of GDP.The nonlinear Granger causality test result shows that there is a unidirectional Granger causality between the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of service outsourcing industry output under 5% significant probabilities.Therefore,the conclusions based on the linear and nonlinear Granger causality test are consistent,that is,the service outsourcing industry is the Granger cause of output growth.Thirdly,this paper further analyzes the short term linkage relationship between the service outsourcing industry and output growth,and describes the interaction relationship between the service outsourcing industry,the third industry and the output growth by depicting the impulse response curve.(1)The test result of STVAR model shows that the growth rate of GDP,the output value of service outsourcing industry and the value-added of third industry has a nonlinear correlation mechanism.(2)The estimation results of the linear VAR model and the STVAR model show that the fitting degree of STVAR model is better than that of linear VAR model in depicting the short term dynamic correlation mechanism of GDP,service outsourcing industry and the third industry.(3)The results of impulse response analysis show that the service outsourcing industry has a positive effect on output growth in the impulse response function curve of STVAR model.The influence of the third industry on output growth is quite different when the economy is in the "old age" and the new normal.Both the linear VAR model and the STVAR model show the phenomenon of "rise and fall" in the relationship between the third industry and the service outsourcing industry.Finally,by constructing a double logarithmic model,this paper compares the elastic impact of service outsourcing industry on output growth both in China and India.The empirical results show that the growth elasticity of service outsourcing industry to GDP is relatively large in China and India,and the two countries are very close.China is even slightly higher than India.The growth elasticity of service outsourcing industry to GDP in China is 0.8772,it's 0.8632 in India.That is,the service outsourcing industry in China increases by 1%,GDP will increase by 0.8872.However,the proportion of output value of service outsourcing industry in China is still low in the proportion of GDP,which was only 0.95% in 2016,far lower than India,which was 5.48%.But it also means that the service outsourcing industry in China has greater potential advantages.With the rapid development of service outsourcing industry,its role in promoting output growth will also become increasingly significant.The economic development in China has entered a new normal state,during the transition from the manufacturing industry to the service economy,it is helpful for the government to locate the service outsourcing industry reasonably by researching the correlation mechanism between service outsourcing industry and output growth and analyzing the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic effects of service outsourcing industry on output growth.It is also beneficial to the government to focus on the nonlinear influence mechanism of service outsourcing industry to output growth,and avoid the potential risks of service outsourcing industry and its adverse effects on output growth.With the further improvement of economic openness,as the leading indicator of output growth,the prosperity of service outsourcing industry will surely contribute to the steady and healthy development of economy.