Study On Regional Resilience Under The Derivative Effects Of Large Earthquake In Mountain Area

Extraordinary earthquakes are typical emergencies.In the extremely severe disaster areas of mountainous earthquakes and the surrounding areas,the secondary disasters generated by the earthquake are coupled with various elements in the regional economic,social and natural systems,forming a derivative effect of complex and continuous effects.A series of outstanding problems have emerged and evolved in various stages of recovery and development,which has caused major challenges to disaster response and sustainable development of regions affected by disasters.Regional resilience is an important indicator for evaluating regional emergency response and economic development capabilities,and is one of the frontiers and hot issues in the field of regional sustainable development.It emphasizes the effective integration of economic and social elements in the regional system,carrying external impacts of derivative effects,and achieving gradual absorption,resistance,recovery and sustainable development.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study regional resilience and evolution under the derivation effect of large earthquake in mountain area.The derivation effect and regional resilience of large earthquake in mountain area both have spatio-temporal characteristics,showing different characteristics in different stages and earthquake-affected areas.In view of the derivation effects and regional resilience characteristics of mountainous large earthquakes,scholars in the fields of geological engineering,emergency management,and public management have conducted various studies on disaster chains and regional restoration and reconstruction.However,there are relatively few studies on the action mechanism of derivation effect of large earthquake on regional resilience in the existing studies.As a result,in the post-disaster emergency management and economic and social reconstruction,the role of regional resilience under earthquake-derived effects is insufficiently understood,thus affecting the sustainable development of these regions.According to it,this paper is based on the perspective of the fusion research on the derivation effect and regional resilience,and analyzes the mechanism of derivation effect on regional resilience.On the basis of natural,economic and social data of the extremely disaster-stricken areas,carrying on the quantitative study of resilience and its dynamic evaluation under the effect of derivative effects from the time and space levels,and then propose a sustainable strategy for regional resilience development.This study regards the extremely disaster-stricken area and regional resilience as a system and the function of the system respectively,and regards regional sustainable development as the goal of system development.Using case studies and empirical analysis,the dynamic evolution process of regional resilience is analyzed,and the research logic,the thinking and the essence belong to management issues.First,we study the action mechanism of mountain-type large earthquake derivative effect on regional resilience.Taking Wenchuan Earthquake as an example,according to the regional examples in various stages of disaster response,post-disaster reconstruction and sustainable development,the regional resilence characterization under the effect of derivative effects is analyzed.Based on the regional case under the derivation effect of the above-mentioned large earthquake,the action paths of the derivation effect on regional resilience were extracted.Secondly,we construct a regional resilience evaluation system under the derivation effect of large earthquake in mountain area.And then,we definie the research area,object and scope of the mountain-type large earthquake,introducing the regional natural economic and social "input-output" efficiency as a measure of regional resilience,building an index system of resilience evaluation,and use the DEA-Malmquist index model to carry out quantitative research on regional resilience.Finally,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional resilience under the derivation effect large earthquakes in mountain area are quantitatively analyzed.Through the analysis of the efficiency of disaster management and reconstruction input and comprehensive output after major disasters,the dynamic changes of regional resilience are described,and the regional resilience characteristics of different regions in different stages of disaster reconstruction are obtained.On this basis,we conduct an example analysis of the typical regional resilience evolution in quantitative analysis and propose a sustainable strategy for post-disaster reconstruction and resilience cultivation.The research results show that the derivation effect of large earthquake in mountain area has complexity on time and space,and the action paths for regional resilience present the characteristics of straight line,chain and closed loop.Quantitative analysis shows that the overall regional resilience of the extremely hard-hit areas has maintained a relatively stable growth trend since 2011,but the rate of improvement has gradually slowed down,requiring long-term resilience cultivation.The evolution of regional resilience under the effect of derivation shows a temporal and spatial difference,among the 10 counties(cities)in the most severely affected areas,the counties(cities)with a better foundation for economic and social development showed relatively better levels of resilience,which have stronger ability to adapt to derivative effects,and have better ability to recover from disasters.However,some areas affected by the superimposition of fault zones and watersheds continue to suffer secondary disasters,resulting in extremely weak regional resilience.Responsing to the dynamic analysis conclusions of the above regional resilience,we propose to categorize and cultivate different action mechanisms from three aspects: scientific disaster avoidance and buffering sustained disaster impacts,achieving coordination between disaster management and regional development to reduce resilience fluctuations,enhancing adaptation levels and achieving resilience positive feedback regional resilience,enhance the resilience development capability with differentiation and regional characteristics.The research results of this paper empirically analyze the evolution law of regional resilience under the action of destructive effects of large earthquakes from the data of post-earthquake reconstruction,obtain the regional resilience development characteristics at different scales,and propose a multi-scale regional resilience improvement strategy.The research integrates the derivative effects of emergencies and regional resilience,making up for the deficiencies of current research.The research results have good guiding significance for current emergency response and post-disaster reconstruction,and at the same time,it provides theoretical basis and policy reserves for the reconstruction of serious natural disasters and regional sustainable development.