Study On Simulation Of Climatic Factors On Potential Productivity And Cultivation Measures

We use CERES-Maize crop model to build the maize growth model in accordance with the reality of maize growth in Henan Province,combining with the historical meteorological data,field observation data,soil data and historical yield data in Henan Province.A2 and B2output from SRES series model of PRECIS,a regional climate model system,is used to simulate and evaluate the impact of future climate on maize growth in Henan Province.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The meteorological yield of maize in Henan Province fluctuated flat from 1988 to 2013;the average temperature fluctuated at a rate of 0.24?/10a during the whole growth period,and the trend was significant.Precipitation fluctuated at the rate of 0.586 mm/a,while sunshine hours fluctuated at the rate of 0.924 h/a,but the trend was not obvious.The highest temperature at silking-maturing stage had a significant negative effect on maize yield,while precipitation at this growth stage had a significant positive effect on maize yield.The meteorological yield of maize will decrease by 325.812 kg/hm2 with the increase of maximum temperature in silking-maturing stage,and increase by 8.579 kg/hm2 with the increase of precipitation.2.Without considering the effect of CO2 fertilizer,future climate change will have a negative impact on maize growth and development.With climate change,the growth period and flowering period are shortened,and the yield is reduced.Because the temperature in B2 scenario is lower than that in A2 scenario and the precipitation is more than that in A2 scenario,the maize yield reduction in B2 scenario is less than that in A2 scenario.Considering the effect of CO2 fertilizer,the growth period is almost unchanged without considering the effect of CO2 fertilizer,but the yield reduction is alleviated.It shows that the increase of CO2 concentration can compensate for or mitigate the negative impact of climate change to a certain extent.3.Increasing irrigation,advancing the sowing date and improving varieties can increase maize yield to a certain extent.The implementation of comprehensive measures can bring the greatest yield increase effect:50 mm irrigation was added at the seven-leaf stage to tasseling and silking-maturity stage,the sowing date was advanced 10 days and the varieties were improved.