Carbon Emission Reduction Pressure Index And Temporal-Spatial Evolution Mechanism Of Carbon Emissions For China’s Transport Sectors

Responding to global climate changing positively is the consensus of the international community,while the increasing the carbon emission reduction pressure making China’s face the deterioration of the environment and sustainable development issues,various industry sectors have gradually realized the importance to protect the environment and develop healthily.Transportation emissions following industry accounted for second proportion of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions,So,China has established the concept of low-carbon transport system to regulate transport carbon emissions growth and deal with the increasingly serious environmental pollution and climate warming problems.developing low-carbon transportation has become the main measure of Chinese government to tackle climate change and environmental pollution.However,Chinese area is vast,the gaps of economic development,urbanization development level,the distribution of population and industry etc.are not the same,and there exists implicit carbon emission transfer resulting from the transport flow,whose temporal and spatial characteristics are complex,so relying solely on the transport carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity index size is not realistically reflected an area transport pressure reduction.In addition,there is still lack of a systematic study on the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emission reduction pressure and the mechanism of carbon emission evolution in provincial traffic.Thus we can not provide rational and scientific theoretical support for provincial traffic reduction control policies and target setting.Therefore,using the scientific theory,selecting the appropriate analytical methods or tools,combining with the actual situation of the temporal-spatial characteristics and evolution mechanism of transport carbon emissions has become a critical and urgent issue.From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity,on the background of dealing with global warming,aiming at clarify transportation carbon emission reduction pressure,implicit carbon transfer phenomenon,confirm the responsibility of transport activities in carbon emission reduction,provide a reference for the transport carbon emission reduction policies in different regions,reduce carbon emissions and carbon reduction pressure within the industry,first of all,using the GWR model and Gauss function method on the basis of the financial sector "pressure index" by determining the weight function,bandwidth and other parameters,constructing China provinces transport carbon emission reduction pressure model and further calculating and testing the transport carbon emissions heterogeneity the driving factors and carbon emission reduction pressure.Secondly,constructing the decoupling elasticity model,grey correlation model,semi-variogram model,DEA model,convergence model,tree analysis tools to analysis quantitatively the temporal and spatial characteristics of China transport carbon emission reduction pressure.Thirdly,exploring transport carbon emissions transfer amount,transfer direction,transfer structure and spatial pattern features among different provinces based on input-output table of 2007 and 2010 Chinese 30 provinces interval.Finally,using MATLAB software which is based on the evolution law of transport carbon emission which is following traditional Logistic model and carbon emission transfer between provinces,to simulate evolution mechanism of different provinces carbon emissions under the influence of carbon emissions transfer between provinces with different steady state and different intensity of carbon emissions control policies.Setting 2002～2012 as time interval of study and the main conclusion of this dissertation are as follows:(1)China’s provinces transport carbon emission reduction pressure and driving factors take 2007 as the time node which resenting a trend that increased first and then decreased;and the differences between different provinces is gradually shrinking in space,and the direction in which transport carbon emissions reduction pressure decreased has changed.(2)The optimization and improvement of transport emissions reduction,energy saving,transport development are decreasing in turn,and the decoupling state of provinces’ transport carbon emission reduction pressure and economic development has experienced a process of"extended negative decoupling--growth link--weak decoupling and strong decoupling".The correlation value between the pressure index and comprehensive value of energy consumption structure are not strong,and the absolute value and relative value both have little difference,at the same time,the correlation value is influenced by transport scale,structure,geographical location and other factors.(3)The most obvious aspects of the anisotropy of transport carbon emission reduction pressure are 42°、40°、52° for 2002，2007 and 2012,and the change of main variable range is little while the change of secondary variable is obvious,and there is a high value and low value aggregation.During the study period,there are fluctuation in the transport carbon emission reduction pressureσ convergence;the central region has not yet appeared absolute βconvergence characteristics;the absolute β convergence rate sort is West>East region and the conditional β convergence rate sort is Middle>West>East region in the rest regions.China is clustering for the South and Southeast Coast--the northeast and central hinterland--northwest provinces three categories with comprehensive analysis,and the average carbon emission reduction pressure index showed a decreasing trend in this direction.(4)The transport carbon transfer scale expanded during the period of 2007～2010,showing the characteristics that the scale sort is East>Middle>West region.In the design of carbon emission reduction policy,some provinces that have a larger carbon transfer in can be appropriate to reduce the carbon emission reduction responsibility while some provinces that carbon transfer out as well as the total amount of implicit carbon should assume greater responsibility to transport carbon emissions.(5)There exists two steady state of carbon emissions between high carbon emissions provinces and low carbon emissions provinces，they are |αAB-βBA|>1 and|αAB-βBA|>1.TheSteady-state differences will have different effects on the evolution of carbon emissions,and different degrees of carbon emission reduction policies can clearly determine the time and height of the peak carbon emissions.