Study On The Emergency Intervention Modeling Method For Inland Water Traffic Accidents

Maritime accidents have attracted much attention in recent decades because it poses various risks in terms of fatalities,loss of property,and environmental pollution.The majority of previous works focused on risk assessment or accident causation analysis from the literature review,while few researches paid attention to the emergency intervention.Therefore,the comparison among risk analysis,accident causation analysis and emergency intervention are carried out from the perspective of both difference and similarity.Moreover,the significance of emergency intervention is also stressed in the first chapter.Then,some definitions of accident are introduced,and the eight distinguishing characters of accident development and intervention are summarized,and the research of this paper is defined to focus on the inland water traffic accidents.Afterwards,the emergency intervention methods in terms of the sates of accident development are proposed.Specifically,they are human reliability prediction before the accident occurs,emergency decision-making in the initiating stage of accident,dynamic decision-making during the development of accident,and effectiveness evaluation of emergency intervention after accident occurs.From this perspective,the intervention methods are carried out from both pre and pro accidents.Moreover,the intervention methods are also developed from micro intervention,which is carried out by ship(prediction of human reliability and initial decision-making),to macro intervention,which is carried out by the Maritime Safety Administration(dynamic decision-making and effectiveness of intervention.Specifically,the intervention methods are proposed according to the distinguishing characters of different stages of maritime accidents,and these methods are verified by using typical inland maritime accidents as case studies.The main research achievements are as follows.(1)The emergency intervention methods are proposed in the whole process of accident development based on the typical characters of inland maritime accidents.Moreover,the emergency intervention theory system for inland maritime accidents has also been proposed.These intervention methods,which are proposed in the different accident development stages,can not only be used as theoretical foundations for emergency response to maritime accidents,but also achieve few time-consuming and reseanable accident handling.(2)Human reliability prediction before accident occurs.This paper proposes an evidential reasoning based CREAM(cognitive reliability and error analysis method)in the process of human reliability analysis,the merit of the proposed methods is that it can precisely describe the effects of nine common performace contexts,and can deal with uncertainty cause by incomplete information.By incorporating the evidential reasoning method,the new CREAM is proposed.The comparation between the traditional methods and proposed CREAM is carried out,which demonstrates that the accuracy of proposed method is consistent with the existing methods.However,the proposed CREAM doesn't need to establish lots of reasoning rules.Finnaly,this method is verified by the case study of collision with bridges.In practice,the apprioriate navigational environment can be selected to enhance the human reliability,through that the human reliability control can be achieved.(3)A decision-making method in the initiating stage of maritime accidents is proposed based on evidential reasoning and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)and a dynamic decision-making method is proposed by considering the time dependence of accident development,these two methods can deal with the problem of using interval numbers for final decision-making,and the problem of considering the accident development in the traditional single-stage decision-making method,respectively.Regarding the decision-making method in the initiating stage of maritime accidents,this paper proposes a group decision-making method among multiple organizations for not under command ship.By introducing TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)method twice,the proposed method can deal with the incomplete information in description of influencing factors,the asymmetric information among multiple organizations,and the derivation of weights of multiple organzitions,and this method is verified by using not control ships in Yangtze River.Regarding the dynamic decision-making for maritime safety administration,a time dependent method which takes the accident development into consideration is proposed,and two case studies including the ship nut under command and grounding are introduced to verify the proposed method.The result demonstrates that the time dependent dynamic decision-making method can make compresention consideration of accident development compared with the time independent decision-making in accident handling.(4)A modified data envelopment analysis method is proposed to effectivenss analysis of emergency intervention for maritime accidents.The proposed method can overcome the drawback of the existing methods,which cannot make full ranking of all decision-making units,and the important information loss in the modeling process.By introducing data envelopment analysis method,the relative ratio of weighted inputs and weighted outputs can be used as the index for effectivess of accident intervention,which can take the navigational environment into consideration.Moreover,the spatial sequential data envelopment analysis method is proposed to deal with the problem of cannotmake full ranking of all decioon-making units.Finally,the effectiveness of accident intervention in Yantze River is introduced to verify the proposed method;the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be more reasonable by taking the navigational environment into consideration.