Study On Investment Evaluation Of Chambishi Copper Mine Based On Set Pair Analysis And Real Option Theory

To alleviate the bottleneck of resources for economic and social development,China actively implements overseas resource development strategies and encourages competitive enterprises to invest in overseas mining.However,due to the huge risks faced by overseas mining projects,the proportion of losses and failures is relatively high.In order to make better use of overseas mineral resources,and to obtain ideal social and economic benefits while implementing overseas resource development strategies,on the one hand,enterprises should evaluate the investment risk based on risk management theory;on the other hand,they should accurately evaluate the investment effect and investment value.Focusing on the theme of investment evaluation of overseas mining projects,the uncertainties in investment were comprehensively summarized,and the possible risks of investment were analysed from natural resources,technical conditions,social relations,policies and laws.Then the risk evaluation model and value evaluation model suitable for overseas mining investment were formed,and the practical application of the model was carried out with the case of the Chambishi copper mine.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Under the premise of fully considering the characteristics of overseas investment,the uncertain factors affecting investment were identified and finally expressed in the form of various indicators to form a set of indicators suitable for overseas mining investment evaluation,providing a basis for subsequent evaluation of investment risk and value.(2)The key indicators affecting the risk of overseas mining investment were refined and classified,then a highly targeted and relatively independent evaluation index system of overseas mining investment risk was constructed,and the weight of each index in the system was determined by entropy weight method to reveal the impact of different indicators on mining investment risk.(3)The set pair analysis theory was introduced into risk assessment of overseas mining investment.Guided by set pair analysis theory,the identity-discrepancy-contrary risk assessment model based on the 5-element connection number was established.The certainty and uncertainty of risk assessment were treated uniformly.By calculating the set pair potential and the full adjacent connection number of the risk factors,the risks of overseas mining investment and their trends were comprehensively evaluated,and then the specific risk assessment results were obtained.(4)Combined with the differences between domestic and foreign financial systems,the relevant costs of the Chambishi copper mine were analyzed through field investigation,and the cost structure was clarified,which fully reflected its cost characteristics and the differences with cost structure of domestic mines,so as to provide basic parameters for the subsequent evaluation of investment value.(5)In order to better deal with the uncertainties in mining investment and reflect the management flexibility,the real option theory was used to evaluate the value of overseas mining investment.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of overseas mining investment options,the financial evaluation model and real option model of investment evaluation were constructed.Then the option pricing model considering uncertainties and non-tradability of underlying assets was constructed according to the characteristics of mining investment,and the solution of option pricing model based on Monte Carlo simulation was proposed.(6)The constructed risk assessment and value evaluation model was applied to the investment evaluation of Chambishi Copper Mine in Zambia.In view of the risks and uncertainties in the investment process,the model was used to evaluate the investment and the uncertain factors with higher risks in the investment projects were obtained.On the one hand,it is used to verify the validity of the model,on the other hand,it also provides a theoretical basis and operational method for the mining enterprises to conduct scientific investment evaluation.In this paper,set pair analysis and real option theory are introduced into overseas mining investment evaluation,which not only helps to improve the level of investment risk management of overseas mining projects,but also extends the traditional investment evaluation theory with financial evaluation as the core.The main risk factors of the investment in Chambishi Copper Mine are given,and the feasible economic value of the mine is evaluated,which provides theoretical support for the investment decision-making of the project.At the same time,the models and methods proposed in this paper can be popularized and applied in overseas mining investment under similar conditions,which is conducive to the concretization and localization of related theories in the resource development industry,and also provides a new perspective for evaluating overseas investments.