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Optimal Innovation Investment And Equilibrium Strategy For The Supply Side Of Natural Gas Market In China

Posted on:2019-09-29Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:S Q LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1361330596458451Subject:Applied Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
At present,the demand for the natural gas known as “the cleanest fossil energy” is about 3.5 trillion cubic meters per year throughout the world.In addition,with the approaching of the global low-carbon economy age,there will be an increasing demand for natural gas for a long time to come.According to IEA(2011),the demand for natural gas throughout the world would grow by more than 50% between 2010 and 2035.Statistics of BP revealed that natural gas consumption in China witnessed an increase from about 23.5 billion cubic meters in 2000 to about 240 billion cubic meters in 2017.In 2017,China’s demand-supply gap for natural gas reached nearly 92 billion cubic meters,and its import dependency was 38%.China’s natural gas consumption has currently accounted for about 6.6% among primary energy sources,compared with about 23.8% of the global average.The demand for natural gas consumption is huge,so the contradiction between supply and demand becomes increasingly prominent,which poses a challenge to China’s ability to provide stable and reliable natural gas supply.Compared with major energy consumers in the world,China has particularly prominent issues about energy supply side,such as low technology level which fails to reach industries’ requirements,obvious shortage of new alternative technologies developed through energy technology improvements or R&D,unreasonable energy market structure,unsound market system,and lack of scientific,reasonable and mature energy price formation mechanism.Implementing an innovation-driven development strategy is important to achieve an effective energy supply,and comprehensive innovation is an urgent need for breaking through the bottleneck of industrial development.China’s National 13 th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development formulated by the National Energy Administration in 2016 put forward that development of the natural gas industry must depend on scientific and technological progress and increase of R & D investment.The Plan made clear arrangements for development of the natural gas market from national strategic level.In this paper,innovation investment is introduced into natural gas pricing mechanism,cost control,duopoly game and supply chain management,in combination with the supply-side reform environment.Furthermore,optimal control and differential countermeasures are used to theoretically analyze the optimal innovation input and equilibrium strategies of the natural gas market participants in different situations.Moreover,preliminary empirical analysis is carried out on some models in the case of data accessibility.This paper mainly studies the following four aspects:Firstly,the relationship between innovation inputs and market pricing of natural gas producers.The Nested Logit model is adopted to depict user’s choice behavior in multi-consumption type and multi-price range so as to establish a stochastic dynamic programming model of innovation input-output and classified pricing,which can represent the dynamic pricing process of natural gas producers.In addition,the dynamic programming algorithm is adopted to achieve the comprehensive strategy of optimal pricing and innovation inputs.This paper draws a conclusion that the natural gas producers’ innovation gains will increase with the increase in innovation inputs in a certain scope,provided that marketization mechanism is implemented in China’s natural gas market and that prices of various types of natural gas keep unchanged.At the same time,it is also found that with the innovation inputs unchanged,a certain range of multi-level differential pricing implemented by the natural gas providers generates higher innovation revenues than single pricing.Secondly,issues about creative decisions of natural gas producers supply chain collaborative innovation impacted by external shocks.The differential game model is used to analyze the dynamic decision-making process in which nine different strategic combinations are formed by means of innovative synergy,neutrality and boycott for crossing,when the two-stage supply chains are impacted by different external shocks.It is concluded that among natural gas producers affected by different external shocks,supply chain companies can achieve Pareto optimality through innovative synergy models.Moreover,the efficiency of collaborative innovation can be improved through knowledge sharing,and the conversion cycle of knowledge innovation results can be shortened by improving the rate of response to customer needs.The impact coefficient of collaborative knowledge innovation efforts can be reduced through establishment of mutual trust and mutual benefit among enterprises,and intellectual right protection can be strengthened to reduce the rate of knowledge decay in supply chain,thereby increasing profits.In addition,it is necessary to further expand the businesses outside the chain and tap the internal potential to improve anti-shock capability.Thirdly,the issue of innovation game in the triopoly market of natural gas producers.Aiming at the triopoly market of natural gas producers in China and the cost reduction and price-off response lag caused by knowledge innovation,the dynamic differential game model of pricing decision is established to analyze the market equilibrium innovation and pricing strategy.A conclusion is reached that with knowledge innovation cycle unchanged,the natural gas producers can reduce their cost by adjusting the input-output intensity of knowledge innovation,on the basis of which the price reducing strategy is implemented.With the change of the innovation input-output intensity,Hopf bifurcation occurs,and there is a unique Nash balance point;when the input-output intensity increases,the equilibrium state is reached and maintained;when the intensity decreases,a periodic solution occurs,thereby exacerbating periodic motion and resulting in unordered competition on the market.Fourthly,the issue about innovation strategies implemented by natural gas producers based on industry trend.From the perspective of systematic cybernetics theory,according to the domestic innovation inputs and outputs of natural gas industry in recent years,R&D expenditures,R&D personnel and R&D projects are taken as the innovation input indicators,and the sales revenue of new products,prime operating revenue and total profit are taken as innovation output indicators to set up the innovation performance evaluation system of natural gas industry.The data envelopment method is used to evaluate the innovation input and output performance.Furthermore,the optimal control theory and polynomial regression method are used to further analyze the trend of innovation inputs in natural gas industry.The correlation between the individual innovation input ratio of natural gas producers and the total inputs of the whole natural gas industry is finally obtained.It is found that under the constraints of the macro-level capital factor elasticity coefficient and the conversion level of innovation inputs and outputs in a certain period of time,the innovation input ratio increases with an increase in total innovation inputs.To maximize the efficiency of innovation inputs,natural gas producers are required to not only increase the absolute amount of inputs in science and technology,but also increase the proportion of innovation inputs in outputs.In short,upon analysis and research of the above problems,this paper intends to provide a theoretical support and decision-making reference for China to carry out the macro-control of the natural gas industry and optimization of innovation input allocation of natural gas enterprises.
Keywords/Search Tags:Natural gas market, Supply side reform, Innovation input, Equilibrium strategy
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