Does Export Expansion Affect Health?

The generally slow growth rates in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have prompted many nations to pursue the political and economic policies that lead the wave of “anti-globalization”,for example,the Brexit and the trade war between US and China.To reflect on the phenomenon of “anti-globalization”,we need to have a better understanding of the benefits of globalization and its “hidden” costs.Will health,as one of the important measures of welfare and one of the ultimate goals of economic development,be part of the “hidden” costs? This paper provides the first empirical study to examine the impact of trade liberalization,particularly export expansion,on household health.China provides a powerful context to examine the relationship between export expansion and health.On one hand,Deng Xiaoping’ South Talk in 1992 dialed the direction of reform and opening-up,fueling a trade boom,and China has experienced phenomenal annual growth rate of export.On the other hand,China,as the world’s most populated nation,has been on the constant upswing in morbidity during this period.In view of this,based on many datasets such as China Health and Nutrition Survey,UN Comtrade database,World Integrated Trade Solution database,and 1% Population Sample Survey of 1990 China Population Censuses,etc.,we employ the novel Bartik approach and construct the local export shock and export-induced pollution shock,and thus provide the empirical inference on the relationship between export expansion and health.This paper includes six chapters.The first chapter is introduction,including the research background and significance,research thought clues,research methods,as well as possible innovations.The second chapter is literature review,the former part of this chapter consults and classifies the relevant literature concerning our topic,including the literature on the impact of export on the labor market condition and on the impact of labor market condition on health,the literature on the impact of export on government tax revenue,fiscal revenue,and the provision of public service,and on the impact of public service on health,the literature on the impact of trade on environment and on the impact of environment pollution on health.The latter part of this chapter includes a very limited number of papers that directly focus on the relationship between trade and health,and analysis of the corresponding comments.The third chapter is theoretical model.The former part is a firm export expansion model which gives detailed derivation process of how export expansion for exogenous reasons affects work intensity,wage,income inequality,the provision of public service,and pollution concentration,and the latter part is an extended model Grossman health demand model extended by introducing work intensity,wage,income inequality,the provision of public service,and pollution concentration,all of which are proved to be the channels through which export expansion affects health.The fourth chapter is the impact of export expansion on adult morbidity.In this chapter,we first summarize the possible channels through which export may affect adult health,followed by data introduction,indicator construction,and model specification in order to explore the impact of export expansion on adult morbidity.Then,based on the estimated coefficients of baseline regression,we calculate the magnitude of the impact of export expansion on adult morbidity in China,and further check the robustness of the coefficients of interest.We further systematically examine the channels through which export expansion affects adult morbidity,and attempt to find the heterogenous relationship between export expansion and adult morbidity.Finally,we re-estimate the adult trade welfare incorporating the “hidden” health cost for them.The fifth chapter is the impact of export expansion on children morbidity.In this chapter,we first summarize the possible channels through which export may affect children health,followed by data introduction,indicator construction,and model specification in order to explore the impact of export expansion on children morbidity.Then,based on the estimated coefficients of baseline regression,we calculate the magnitude of the impact of export expansion on children morbidity in China,and further check the robustness of the coefficients of interest.We further systematically examine the channels through which export expansion affects children morbidity,and attempt to find the heterogenous relationship between export expansion and children morbidity.Finally,we re-estimate the household trade welfare incorporating the “hidden” health cost for children.The sixth chapter summarizes the whole paper,and gives the corresponding policy implication,and then points out the future research in this field.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Export shock reduces the possibility of adult falling ill while export-induced air pollution shocks increase the possibility of adult falling ill,and the sum of the two completely contrary impacts indicates that export expansion in total increases the possibility of adult falling ill by 1.24 percent.Quantitatively,a one standard deviation increase in export shock could reduce the possibility of adult falling ill by 1.24 percent.As for the export-induced air pollution shocks,a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in sulfur dioxide increases the possibility of adult falling ill by 1.07 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in Nitrogen oxides increases the possibility of adult falling ill by 1.15 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in industrial dust increases the possibility of adult falling ill by 1.08 percent.We further examine the channels through which export expansion affects adult morbidity,i.e.,labor market condition,the provision of public services and environmental quality.Moreover,we find that the impacts of export shock and export-induced air pollution shocks on adult morbidity are heterogeneous across types of diseases,urban and rural areas,skilled and unskilled workers,while show no difference in gender.Finally,we re-estimate the adult trade welfare incorporating the “hidden” adult health cost,and find that the associated medical cost could decrease adult trade welfare by 13.72 percent.(2)Export shock reduces the possibility of children falling ill while export-induced air pollution shocks increase the possibility of children falling ill,and the sum of the two completely contrary impacts indicates that export expansion in total increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.82 percent.Quantitatively,a one standard deviation increase in export shock could reduce the possibility of children falling ill by 1.05 percent.As for the export-induced air pollution shocks,a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in sulfur dioxide increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.07 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in Nitrogen oxides increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.40 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in industrial dust increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.29 percent.We further examine the channels through which export expansion affects children morbidity,i.e.,parents’ wages,nutrition intake,the provision of public services,left-behind children and environmental quality.Moreover,we find that the impacts of export shock and export-induced air pollution shocks on children morbidity are heterogeneous across types of diseases and different periods of age,with no significant difference in gender,urban and rural areas.Finally,we re-estimate the household trade welfare incorporating the “hidden” children health cost,and find that the associated medical cost could decrease the total household trade welfare by 6.53 percent.