Melt anomalies on the Greenland Ice Sheet and large scale modes of atmospheric circulation

The relationships between inter annual melt variability in Greenland and large scale atmospheric circulation are explored based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of melt in Greenland derived from passive microwave satellite observations. The first EOF of the melt anomalies was found to be highly representative of the spatial and temporal distribution of melt anomalies accounting for over 34% of the variability and the principal component (PC) time series is 98% correlated with the annual total melt extent time series. The leading melt PC is highly correlated with key features of the large scale atmospheric circulation both in the vicinity of Greenland and regions that are well removed. Some aspects of the atmospheric pressure anomaly fields related to melt in Greenland are congruent with the summer expression of the AO/NAO including the main center of action east of Greenland, however there are features of the melt related anomaly field that are not. During peak melt years there is a decrease in the pressure gradient between the Bearing Sea and more southerly latitudes resulting in a redistribution of the central Arctic low pressure toward the Pacific side of the Arctic basin. This pattern is expressed as a 50% correlation between melt in Greenland and the phase of planetary pressure wave #1 and #2 north of 50° N. The storm tracks related to increased melt in Greenland result in increased summer storm activity to the south and west of Greenland balanced by decreased cyclonic activity to the east and north. Comparison with the NAO related storm track highlights key differences relative to the melt related atmospheric circulation that lead to increased southerly flow directly into Greenland during years with increased melt. The pattern of summer sea ice concentration anomalies linked to the melt PC is remarkably similar to the spatial pattern of recent sea ice decline. The pattern of circulation anomalies associated with increased melt in Greenland likely accounts for some of the continued decline in sea ice concentrations in recent years particularly in the Beaufort Sea.