Simulating the interaction between intraseasonal and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific with a coupled system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations

A major goal in the study of climate is to understand and predict an event known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon which manifests itself in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and effects global weather changes. It has been proposed that ENSO is linked with an atmospheric event known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These phenomena operate on two distinct time scales, but are arguably coupled events. In fact, observations of the Tropical Pacific suggest that the MJO may act as 4 physical trigger for ENSO events. The present work is an attempt to understand some of the basic mechanisms that may link ENSO and the MJO using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. A physically realistic intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate the relationship further. The ultimate goal is to improve our understanding of the relationship between ENSO and processes which operate on faster timescales in the hope that this knowledge will aid in the prediction of ENSO at long lead times.