A numerical modeling study of the coupled variability of Lake Victoria in eastern Africa and the regional climate

The objective of this investigation was to investigate and study the coupled atmosphere-lake climate system over the Lake Victoria basin, and determine the corresponding physical mechanisms that are involved. The primary research vehicle for the investigation is a fully coupled model of the regional climate of Eastern Africa and Lake Victoria which has been developed and applied in this study. The atmospheric component of the model is the NCAR Regional Climate Model (RegCM2).; The results show that the bythemetry and geometry of the lake play a fundamental role in determining the climatology of Lake Victoria. There exists Kelvin-like waves in the thermocline trapped along the coast and they propagate clockwise around Lake Victoria with periodicity of about 30 days. Preliminary comparison of the coupled RegCM2-POM model simulation results with the observations indicates that the model produces more realistic lake surface temperatures (LST) and rainfall over and around the lake than the standard version of RegCM2 in which a simple one dimensional thermal diffusion lake model is used.; Over Eastern Africa, the regional climate variability is significantly influenced by the circulation over the Lake Victoria basin. The interaction between the lake-land breeze and the prevailing northeasterly flow accounts for the asymmetry in the distribution of the diurnal rainfall variations and the southwestward movement of the dominant bands of divergence/convergence.; During the 1982 El Nino when the averaged LST over the lake was higher than that during the normal year, the LST gradient was weakened along the SW-NE axis over the lake by the strong lake circulation. The hydrodynamics of the lake play an important role in determining the coupled variability of the lake circulation and the lake basin-wide climatic conditions.; The potential climate change resulting from total clearing of the tropical rain forests in Africa was also investigated by the standard version of the NCAR CCM3 global climate model. Over Eastern and Western Africa the impact of deforestation is primarily characterized by reduction in rainfall, however the CCM3 resolution of T42 which we have adopted may not be adequate to resolve the large contrasts in terrain and vegetation types. A striking result is that the strong remote response of the Southern Africa region to deforestation over Central Africa. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)...