Producing a satellite-derived map and modelling Spartina alterniflora expansion for Willapa Bay in Washington State

This research addresses the identification of the areal extent of the intertidal wetlands of Willapa Bay, Washington, and the evaluation of the potential for exotic Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) expansion in the bay using a spatial geographic approach. It is hoped that the results will address not only the management needs of the study area but provide a research design that may be applied to studies of other coastal wetlands.;Four satellite images, three Landsat Multi-Spectral (MSS) and one Thematic Mapper (TM), are used to derive a map showing areas of water, low, middle and high intertidal, and upland. Two multi-date remote sensing mapping techniques are assessed: a supervised classification using density-slicing and an unsupervised classification using an ISODATA algorithm. Statistical comparisons are made between the resultant derived maps and the U.S.G.S. topographic maps for the Willapa Bay area.;The potential for Spartina expansion in the bay is assessed using a sigmoidal (logistic) growth model and a spatial modelling procedure for four possible growth scenarios: without management controls (Business-as-Usual), with moderate management controls (e.g. harvesting to eliminate seed setting), under a hypothetical increase in the growth rate that may reflect favorable environmental changes, and under a hypothetical decrease in the growth rate that may reflect aggressive management controls.;Comparisons for the statistics of the two mapping techniques suggest that although the unsupervised classification method performed satisfactorily, the supervised classification (density-slicing) method provided more satisfactory results.;Results from the modelling of potential Spartina expansion suggest that Spartina expansion will proceed rapidly for the Business-as-Usual and hypothetical increase in the growth rate scenario, and at a slower rate for the elimination of seed setting and hypothetical decrease in the growth rate scenarios, until all potential habitat is filled.