| Global warming is one of the most serious challenges faced by human society.The China government has further improved the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Paris Agreement at the “Climate Ambitions Summit” hosted by the United Nations in December 2020,and emphasized that to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.As a major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emissions in the world and domestic,the macro building sector are considered to have greater potential for carbon emission reduction.In recent years,with the continuous acceleration of domestic urbanization process and the continuous improvement of people's living standards,the volume of urban building in construction stage has continued to increase,and the energy demand for building terminal equipment also kept a growing trend,resulting in a rapid increase in energy consumption and total carbon emissions in the building and construction sectors.According to the S-curve theory of urbanization development,it can be predicted that domestic urbanization is still accelerating,and the energy consumption and carbon emissions of macro building sector will rise sharply in the future,which will inevitably bring great obstacles to domestic future energy conservation and emission mitigation.In this background,the academic community has explored energy conservation and emission mitigation in building-related fields and has achieved some research results.However,there are still some weak links in the quantification of carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of buildings,analyzing the mechanisms and driving factors affecting carbon emissions in buildings' life cycle,simulating future scenarios of carbon emissions peak,distributing the emission mitigation responsibility in provincial level,and so on.These makes it difficult for domestic relevant government departments to accurately target the implementation of building energy-saving and emission-reduction measures,and makes future energy-saving and emission-reduction policy goals related to the macro building sectorIn view of this,on the basis of existing literature research,this article proposes a basic data measurement method for energy consumption and carbon emissions of Chinese building's life cycle in China,conducts a statistical analysis on the current status of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and quantitative Chinese emission efficiency and emission mitigation potential of providential macro building sector from2005 to 2017.And use the GDIM model to analyze the contribution of the relevant driving factors of national and provincial-level macro building sector;based on static scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation,constructing a dynamic peaking scenario of carbon emissions on macro building sector,which is used describe the future development trend and peaking state of carbon emissions on Chinese macro building sector;meanwhile,determining the responsibility target of the provincial building sector's carbon emission mitigation and quantifying the marginal cost of carbon emission mitigation.This study develop and improve the theoretical and data basis for the development of energy-saving and emission-reduction work in the building-related fields for relevant Chinese government departments.The main work of the full text is as follows:This article first measured the basic data of energy consumption and carbon emissions on the Chinese macro building sector from 2005 to 2017,clarified the current status of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and used the SBM-DDF model to discuss the carbon emission efficiency and emission mitigation potential of macro building sector in provincial level.The results of the study show that the total carbon emissions of macro building sector in 2017 reached about 4.75 Bt CO2,accounting for41.1% of the total Chinese carbon emissions(calculated based on the national fossil energy consumption statistics)and 37.8%(based on the provincial fossil energy Consumption statistics calculation),the overall carbon emission efficiency is relatively low,and the carbon emission potential of the macro building sector is above 50%.Secondly,the GDIM model is used to analyze the effect of relevant driving factors on the carbon emissions of macro building sector.From the two levels of economic development and construction demand,analyze the relevant factors that affect the carbon emissions of macro building sector,and calculates the contribution of each factor to the total carbon emissions at the provincial level.The research results show that at the national level,the investment scale,the added value of the macro building sector and the quick growth of building stock are the key factors affecting the rapid growth of carbon emissions.In 2017,the three contributed 723.1 Mt-CO2,1066.2 Mt-CO2 and327.9 Mt-CO2,respectively.Investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity were the main contributors restraining carbon emission in the macro building sector.The two contributed-640.5 Mt-CO2 and-939.5 Mt-CO2 between 2005 and 2017,respectively.At the provincial level,except Beijing,Shanghai,and Liaoning,the increase value in fixed asset investment is the biggest driving factor for the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in all provinces.The decrease of energy intensity has a mitigating effect on carbon emissions in most provinces,except for the north provinces providing the central heating.Then use the method combining static scenario analysis with Monte Carlo simulation to quantitative the future development trend and peak state of carbon emissions of macro building sector.First,build emission measurement model on macro building sector carbon to discuss the future development trajectory of total carbon emissions under three scenarios(benchmark,optimistic and pessimistic).The study found that the future development trend of total carbon emissions under the two perspectives generally presents an "inverted U-shaped" curve.Taking the benchmark scenario as an example,from the perspective of economic development,the macro-building sector can achieve a peak carbon emissions in 2026,with a peak of5.219 Bt-CO2;from the perspective of building demand,the macro-building sector can achieve carbon emissions peak in 2024,with a peak of 5.219 Bt-CO2.Finally,a model used to share responsibility of carbon emission mitigation under efficiency and fairness is constructed,which clarifies the responsibility targets of carbon emission mitigation at provincial building sector and quantify the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction.Regarding how to realize the fairness and efficiency of emission reduction responsibility,this paper constructs an efficiency and fair emission mitigation responsibility sharing model based on the theoretical basis of marginal emission reduction,and compares it with the allocation plan under the single principle.The results of the study found that from the perspective of efficiency,the emission mitigation responsibility model established in this paper has greater advantages.At the same time,its fairness is similar to the result of responsibility sharing under the principle of single equity,which can guarantee the fairness of carbon emission mitigation responsibility distribution.This paper takes the Chinese building whole life cycle as the research object,conducts an in-depth discussion on the future carbon emission evolution trend of the macro building sector through scenario simulation,analyzes the key stages and key factors that affect the peak of carbon emissions,and combines the actual situation to effectively and fairly share emission mitigation responsibility.The main results of this study can enrich the discussion of the current energy consumption and carbon emissions of the macro building sector to a certain extent,and can also further improve and expand the empirical methods and knowledge system of the carbon emission driving factors and carbon emission peak prediction of the macro building sector.From a practical point of view,the results of this study will help the Chinese government to predict the future development of carbon emissions of the macro building sector.Meanwhile,the study also provide a reference for formulating emission reduction targets of "14th Five-Year Plan" or more long-term energy conservation and emission reduction policies Planning. |
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