Research On Health Effects And Economic Losses From PM_2.5 Pollution In Benxi City

At present,China’s research on the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution focus primarily on heavily polluted areas such as Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and the Yangtze River Delta;few studies have been conducted in other areas.In this study conducted in Benxi City,based on Benxi’s specific industrial layout and geographical location,the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution were researched from the perspective of long-term pollution and pollution incidents.In the scenario of long-term pollution,a model for autoregressive prediction based on the heredity theory was constructed to improve the basic model of the relationship between PM_2.5 exposure and reaction.Then,based on the relative risk,modified human capital method,and illness cost method,the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution in Benxi were evaluated.In the scenario of pollution incidents,making use of a steel enterprise in Benxi,the functions of meteorological effect and pollutant concentration effect were introduced.Consequently,a model of PM_2.5concentration prediction based on the theory of hierarchical regression was constructed,by which the air pollution incidents related to the enterprise were simulated and analyzed.The theory of impulse response was introduced to design a method for evaluating the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution incident,with which the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution in the scenario of air pollution incidents related to enterprises were evaluated,providing the government with a scientific basis for understanding and managing PM_2.5pollution.The findings of this study are as follows:（1）Based on the data of PM_2.5 concentration for Benxi from 2016 to 2019,the PM_2.5 pollution in Benxi over the past few years was analyzed,and the concentration of PM_2.5 in Benxi was found to be high during winter and low during summer from2016 to 2019.The annual average concentration of PM_2.5 in 2016 was 45μg/m³,showing that pollution was at its worst in 2016.From 2017 to 2018,the PM_2.5pollution was mitigated,but worsened in 2019.This indicates that although Benxi has made some achievements in managing air pollution,PM_2.5 pollution persists,and there is a need to further improve air quality.（2）Based on collected data on cause of death,outpatient and emergency treatment,air pollution concentration,meteorological monitoring for Benxi,a model of autoregressive prediction was constructed,and the coefficient of the exposure-reaction relationship between PM_2.5,daily all-cause death toll,and number of outpatient and emergency cases in Benxi was obtained through the fitting of the model.Based on this,the health effects and economic losses of long-term PM_2.5pollution from 2016 to 2019 in Benxi were evaluated.As shown in the results,in2016,the mortality and the rate of outpatient and emergency treatment caused by PM_2.5 pollution at the relative threshold concentration（25μg/m³）increased by 2.8%（95%CI:-78.0%-39.5%）and 38.4%（95%CI:29.8%-46.3%）,respectively,both of which were highest in those years.In 2017,the economic losses from long-term PM_2.5pollution in Benxi was about RMB 806.24 million（95%CI:RMB 471.10-971.94million）,accounting for about 0.99%（95%CI:0.58%-1.20%）of the annual regional GDP,which was the highest in those years.It can be concluded that the health effects and economic losses from long-term PM_2.5 pollution in Benxi should not be underestimated.（3）Based on the air pollution concentration and meteorological monitoring data obtained from the monitoring station set at the studied enterprise,a model of PM_2.5concentration prediction was constructed and made used to determine the parameters for the PM_2.5 simulation.In addition,the software EIAPro A-2018 was utilized to simulate and analyze the range of influence,concentration distribution,and residents exposed to primary pollutants（SO₂,CO,NH₃,and H₂S）and PM_2.5 generated during the air pollution incident of the studied enterprise.It was found that the influence of primary pollutants is limited within the factory,whereas the influence of PM_2.5 is greater,which may expose a large number of residents outside the factory to the pollution.Therefore,it can be concluded that PM_2.5 is the main factor affecting the health of residents outside the factory.（4）Based on the theory of impulse response,a model for the impulse response function of the death toll/mortality and the number of outpatient and emergency cases against PM_2.5 pollution in Benxi was constructed and made used to obtain the impulse response output in the air pollution incidents.On this basis,an approach to evaluate the health effects and economic losses from PM_2.5 pollution as a result of the incident was developed and utilized in the evaluation of the air pollution incident of the studied enterprise.It was found that,as a result of the PM_2.5pollution caused by the enterprise’s coke-oven gas leak,compared to when the incident did not occur,the mortality of residents in the exposed area in the presence of PM_2.5 increased by about30%（95%CI:6%-41%）,the rate of outpatient and emergency treatment increased by around 409%（95%CI:383%-432%）,resulting in residents’economic losses of approximately RMB 52,098（95%CI:RMB 48,807.60-54,840）,which is greater than the rates in other air pollution incidents of the enterprise.Efforts should be made to prevent such an incident.PM_2.5 pollution arising from other air pollution incidents of the enterprise may also increase the mortality and the number of outpatient and emergency cases among the exposed population,and these incidents should not be underestimated.