| China’s light industry sector is a pillar industry of the national economy,and is also an important livelihood industry to serve the people’s good life,it has a duty that should encourage the high-quality green development and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.In the background of economic globalization,the development of international trade leads production behaviors to cross national borders,and the embodied carbon emission(ECE)generated by international trade causes around 30 percent of the total ECE.How to clarify the existing issues of ECE in international trade of China’s light industry sector,accurately analyze the characteristics and driving factors of ECE,and formulate scientific and feasible emission reduction strategies are the key points for ensuring the low-carbon,green,and high-quality development of the China’s light industry sector.In order to solve those problems,based on international trade theory,industrial association theory,industrial structure theory,complex network theory,multi-attribute decision theory and time sequence theory,this paper sequentially analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ECE in the international trade of China’s light industry sector,decomposed the driving factors of tradeECE,predicts trade-ECE,and conducted research on emission governance strategies.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:(1)ECE characteristics of international trade in China’s light industry sector was analyzed from the perspective of the global supply chain.Based on multi-regions input-output method,considering the production and consumption activity,a trade-ECE calculation model was constructed among China’s 16 light industries in 42 major economies.Research results showed that the total production-based ECE(19094.29 Mt)from international trade in China’s light industry sector were much greater than those from consumption-based ECE(605.63 Mt).I15(Manufacturing of general and specialized equipment for light industry),I8(Manufacturing industry of glass,glass products,refractory products,clay building materials,other ceramic products,cement,lime,gypsum and other non-metallic mineral products)and I9(Manufacturing industry of basic precious metals,non-ferrous metals and other basic metals)were key light industries that caused ECE during the trade of China’s light industry sector.The total annual average ECE of above three types of light industries were more than 78.86%.It is worth noting that I13(Manufacturing industry of bicycles,scooters,and off-road leisure vehicles)was the only China’s light industry with a net output of ECE.As a net input industry for trade ECE,the cost of controlling China’s domestic ECE caused by the consumption of light industrial products in other countries fell on China’s other light industries.Meanwhile,China,as a net importer of ECE,and the cumulative carbon deficit was 18488.66 Mt.Especially Indonesia,South Korea,Japan,India,Hungary,Russia and other 12 countries were the main ECE sources during the China’s light industry trade.In addition,trade paths with I6(Manufacturing of primary plastics,synthetic rubber,pigments,varnishes and similar coatings,printing inks and adhesives,plant medicinal materials and other products),I8,I9,and I15 in Indonesia,as well as I1(Agricultural and sideline food processing industry)in Sourth Korea,and I5(Manufacturing of paper and paper products,and manufacturing of entertainment products)in Japan,I14(Manufacturing of repair and installation equipment such as optics,electronic equipment,and metal products)in the United States were the main ECE source of Chinese light industry sector.(2)ECE characteristics of the international trade in China’s light industry sector was analyzed from the perspective of trade network.Based on complex network method,import and export trade network of the China’s light industry sector was established.Combining the trend of ECE changes in light industry trade,the ECE evaluation model of Chinese light industry sector’s international trade was constructed by using entropy weight TOPSIS,factor analysis method,induced density operator method and minimum deviation method.Based on the characteristics of light industry trade network,the results showed that United States,India,the Netherlands,Cyprus,the United Kingdom,Turkey,Poland,Spain,Russia,and Belgium were 10 countries that promoted the increase of Chinese light industry’s local ECE.I11(Manufacturing of batteries,household electrical appliances and lighting appliances),I12(Agricultural and forestry machinery,food and beverage processing machinery,tobacco processing machinery and other specialized machinery,as well as general machinery manufacturing such as office machinery and equipment,electric hand tools,etc),13(Manufacturing of textiles,clothing,and leather products),I15 and I16(Culture,education,industrial art,sports and entertainment products manufacturing and the printing of this booklet)were the light industries that caused the most significant ECE in China from the perspective of international trade network.Finally,41 trading countries(regions)were divided into five categories according to the structure of the light industry trade network and ECE of imports and exports.Each category had been thoroughly analyzed for the key light industry and corresponding trade strategies.(3)The main driving factors affecting ECE in the international trade of China’s light industry sector were reflected from the perspective of the final flow of light industrial products.The two-level decomposition method and the LMDI decomposition method were used to construct a decomposition model of the driving factors for the China’s light industry international trade ECE.The research results showed that the carbon emission intensity effect,the scale effect of light industrial consumer goods,the scale effect of light industrial investment goods,and re-export scale effect were positively correlated with the total amount of ECE.And the dependency effect between light industries was negatively correlated with the total amount of ECE.The carbon emission intensity effect and re-export scale effect were two main driving factors for the increase of ECE in China’s light industry international trade,the average annual increment effect of those two types of driving factors was 35.09 Mt and 143.98 Mt,respectively.The cumulative contribution rate of the carbon emission intensity effect(more than 600%)from Bulgaria,and other 5 countries were relatively high to contribute the total ECE of light industry trade.And the scale of China’s light industrial products exported to Latvia,and other 8 countries had greatly contributed to the increase in trade-ECE.The carbon emission intensity effect of 13(textiles,clothing and leather products)and I2(manufacturing of food,beverages and tobacco products)were the driving factors that leaded to a more significant increase in trade-ECE of China’s light industry.I1 and I7(production of rubber and plastic products)had relatively high relative contribution rates to the scale effect of re-export trade.The carbon emission intensity effect of China and Indonesia in 115 reduced the tradeECE to a certain extent,but the carbon emission effect of I1 increased the ECE of China’s light industry between above two countries.The re-export scale effect of I15,I8 and I9 were the main source for Indonesia,South Korea,Russia and India’s ECE transferred to China.(4)ECE evolution and trend of China’s light industry international trade were predicted,and the peak time and peak value of ECE were compared under different emission reduction scenarios.Considering the changing trends of various driving factors,combined with the extended STIRPAT model and Markov model,a prediction model for the international trade-ECE in China’s light industry sector was constructed.This part simulated ECE changes in China’s light industry international trade until 2030,and designed different carbon emission reduction governance scenarios.The peak time and peak value of ECE in China’s light industry sector were compared by using scenario analysis method.Research results showed that the total ECE from China’s light industry international trade will increase to 1981.33 Mt in 2030,and the five light industries with the highest ECE during the forecast period are I15,I1,I8,I9,and I6.Under different scenario modes,the relationship about the total ECE in international trade of China’s light industry was as follows:Benchmark mode(Al)>Green consumption mode(A4)>Industrial structure optimization mode(A2)>Energy-saving and carbon reduction mode(A3)>International trade optimization mode(A5)>Coordinated development mode(A6).Among them,the coordinated development model(A6),as the optimal light industrial development path,will reach a peak of 1745.54 Mt as early as 2025.(5)ECE governance strategies were put forward for the international trade of China’s light industry sector.Based on research results,China should take into account the embodied carbon deficit of international trade in different light industries,and scientifically formulate the carbon governance strategy of China’s light industry sector that comprehensively considers the evolution characteristics of the hidden carbon deficit of international trade and the structure of international trade network.At the same time,focus should be on clarifying the influencing factors that hinder the key light industry fields,predicting the ECE trend of light industry trade in advance,forming a pattern of collaborative deep carbon governance of the whole chain of light industry,and promoting the implementation of the ECE governance plan of Chinese light industry sector’s international trade.This paper expands the research perspective of international trade-ECE from the China light industry sector,and provides decision-making reference for comprehensively promoting the transformation and upgrading of China’s light industry and realizing green,low-carbon and high-quality development,which will help implement the plan of China’s carbon peak carbon neutrality goal and strengthen the modernization of China’s ecological civilization. |
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