| Karst ecosystem is an important part of terrestrial surface ecosystem and provides a variety of ecosystem services for human beings.In the context of global climate and land use change,with the rapid socio-economic development and the continuous expansion of urbanization scale in karst region,the human demand for ecosystem services is also growing rapidly.Under the multiple needs of socio-economic development,ecological restoration and protection,ecological management and sustainable development in karst areas face great challenges.Therefore,how to evaluate and predict the supply-demand of ecosystem services in karst area is an urgent scientific problem to realize the adaptive management and sustainable development of ecosystem services.This study in Guizhou province,a typical karst region in southwestern china,as the research area,and during 2000-2020 and 2020-2050 as the historical and future research periods,respectively.Key ecosystem services such as water yield(WY),carbon sequestration(CS),soil retention(SR),grain production(GP)and habitat quality(HQ)are selected.In VEST model,RULSE model,spatial assignment method,ESDR,Spearman correlation analysis,SOM,OPGD,GWR,SD-PLUS coupling model were used to evaluate the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem service supply-demand.This thesis reveals the spatio-temporal pattern and matching model of ecosystem service supply and demand matching,identifies the tradeoff/synergy relationship and spatial clustering characteristics of ecosystem service supply-demand,explores the influencing factors of ecosystem service supply-demand,predicts the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service supply-demand under the future climate-socio-economic land-use change scenario,and proposes the optimal management strategy of ecosystem service in karst areas.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)The supply and demand of ecosystem services in karst areas have spatial and temporal heterogeneity,and the mismatch between supply and demand of ecosystem services is significant.The supply of ecosystem services was mainly provided by forest,shrubland,grassland and cultivated land in the south and east of the study area,while the demand for ecosystem services was concentrated in the urbanized areas in the middle and west of the study area,and there was obvious spatial mismatch in the supply of ecosystem services.From2000 to 2020,rapid urbanization and population growth will exacerbate the increasing demand for ecosystem services.The scale of supply hotspots and demand hotspots has a trend of decreasing and decreasing,and the mismatch pattern of ecosystem service supply and demand is becoming increasingly significant.(2)There is spatial agglomeration between the supply and demand of various ecosystem services in karst areas.From 2000 to 2020,five supply clusters were formed: grain production supply cluster,carbon sequestration-habitat quality synergistic cluster,carbon sequestration-habitat quality-soil retention synergistic cluster,water yield-habitat quality-soil retention service supply low value cluster,and grain production-water yield synergistic cluster.There were five demand clusters: strong habitat quality demand cluster,soil retention demand cluster,weak habitat quality demand cluster,grain production-carbon sequestration-water yield demand cluster and water yield demand cluster.There were 6 supply-demand ratio clusters: grain production-carbon sequestration-water yield-habitat quality shortage cluster,grain production-carbon sequestration-water yield tradeoff cluster,grain production-carbon sequestration tradeoff cluster,soil retention service cluster,soil retention-water yield-grain production-carbon sequestration-habitat quality surplus cluster,habitat quality-carbon sequestration-water yield-grain production surplus cluster.(3)There are significant differences between supply-demand tradeoffs and synergies of ecosystem services in karst areas.From 2000 to 2020,the trade-offs between supply-demand of ecosystem services were mainly distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,which were related to the distribution of forest,shrubland and grassland.The synergistic relationship areas are mainly distributed in the urbanization areas with concentrated population and are related to the demand for ecosystem services.The trade-offs/synergies between supply and demand of ecosystem services are mainly dominated by supply in cultivated land,forest,shrubland and grassland,while demand is mainly dominated in artificial land distribution area.(4)The supply-demand of ecosystem services in karst areas are affected by natural environment and socio-economic factors.Precipitation,slope,NDVI,population density and land use are important factors affecting the balance of ecosystem service supply and demand in karst areas.From 2000 to 2020,natural environmental factors are the dominant factors affecting the supply of ecosystem services in karst areas,and the influence of socio-economic factors on the demand for ecosystem services is dominant.The balance of supply-demand of ecosystem services is comprehensively affected by natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors,and the dominant position of ecosystem services is changing from natural environmental factors to socio-economic factors.The effects of natural environment and social economic factors on ecosystem service supply,demand,supply-demand match are spatio-temporal heterogeneity,and the spatio-temporal pattern of influencing factors leads to the mismatch of ecosystem service supply-demand.The influence of the interaction of all factors on the spatial pattern of ecosystem service supply and demand is higher than that of single factor,showing the characteristics of double factor and nonlinear enhancement.(5)The imbalance between supply and demand of ecosystem services in karst areas will intensify in the future scenario.Under the three scenarios by2050,in addition to the expected improvement in the supply-demand match of soil retention services,the mismatch between supply and demand of water yield,carbon sequestration,grain production,and habitat quality services will further intensify.The supply of water yield and grain production services will increase slightly in the future period,and the supply of carbon sequestration and habitat quality services will continue to decrease in the future period,but the demand for these four services will show a significant growth trend,especially in the expanding areas of urbanization.The supply of ecosystem services affected by natural environmental factors can be improved by ecological restoration measures,but the demand for ecosystem services affected by social and economic factors increases more significantly.The main reason for the increasing imbalance of supply and demand is the increasing human activities.In the future,ecosystem management should not only mitigate and adapt to climate change,but also pay attention to the impact of rapid growth of human activities on the imbalance of supply and demand of ecosystem services.(6)Provide optimization strategies for ecosystem management based on historical assessment and future prediction of ecosystem service supply-demand in karst areas.Mitigation measures were proposed for tradeoffs between water yield-grain production,soil retention-grain production,carbon sequestration-grain production,and habitat quality-grain production.A variety of ecosystem service supply-demand optimization management measures were proposed for spatial clusters such as grain production-carbon sequestration-water yield-habitat quality shortage cluster,grain production-carbon sequestration-water yield tradeoff cluster,grain production-carbon sequestration tradeoff cluster,soil retention service cluster,soil retention-water yield-grain production-carbon sequestration-habitat quality surplus cluster,habitat quality-carbon sequestration-water yield-grain production surplus cluster. |
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