A Study On Cross-Strait Relations Under The Interaction Of Hard Power And Soft Power Since 1978

On January 1st of 1979,the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of PRC published "An Open Letter to Taiwan Compatriots".Meanwhile,both sides of the Taiwan Strait ceased to fire at each other and ended military confrontation.Afterwards,the Cross Strait relations have experienced several stages:gradually mitigation stage(1979-1987),communication and dialogue stage(1987-1995),counter-"Taiwan Independence" and pro-reunification stage(1995-1999),"Taiwan Independence" opposing and containing stage(2000-2008)and the peaceful development stage(2008-2016),which,full of ups and downs,results from the fluctuations of both sides’ policy toward each other based on the fluctuations of their comprehensive power,and also results from the interplay of their hard and soft power along with the constant change.The fluctuations,which should be produced when one side understand the situation of itself and of the other side;however,they are actually produced when one side just knows things about itself but knows nothing about the other side,or otherwise,or even understands neither itself nor the other side.Therefore,the interactions between both sides always failed to match the situation of the other side and sometimes were totally dislocated,thus leading to the ups and downs of the situation across the Strait.Hence,an accurate quantitative analysis about the comprehensive power of both sides presents substantial academic value and practical significance.The Mainland should clearly understand the comprehensive power comparison across the Strait,make the most of its own comprehensive power,cultivate strategic confidence and maintain strategic stability.Meanwhile,the Mainland should map and announce every policy and measure dealing with the Taiwan Question more accurately,promote the process of the peaceful development of the Cross-Strait relations,and prepare foundations for the peaceful reunification.Taiwan should also understand the comprehensive power of the both sides clearly,to precisely define the status of itself and to avoid getting self-content with a limited perspective.The Taiwan authority should guide its people to follow the general trend of peaceful development and even peaceful reunification that has already formed,instead of going against it in vain.The paper evaluates the most typical comprehensive power model and integrates domestic and foreign researches on comprehensive power with quantitative and qualitative research methods to evaluate Cross-Strait comprehensive power from 1978 to 2014 by 288 indicators.The indicators are composed of 206 hard power indicators and 82 soft power indicators.Hard power includes economic power,scientific and technological power,military power and resource power.Soft power includes political power,cultural and educational power and diplomatic power.The paper examines the relationship between the hard and soft power of the two sides through the analysis and comparison horizontally and vertically.The assessment shows that Cross-Strait comprehensive power contrast shows scissors cross trend since 1978.The ratio of Taiwan’s comprehensive power to the mainland has gradually increased until 1994 when it reached a peak.After that,with the enhancing of Mainland’s comprehensive power,the gap of comprehensive power between the two sides has rapidly expanded.The Mainland’s comprehensive power is 6.73 times more than that of Taiwan in 2014.Cross-Straits hard power contrast is similar to the comprehensive power contrast.Soft power contrast is showing a steady expansion trend.In 2014,the mainland hard and soft power were respectively 9.29 times and 1.45 times more than that of Taiwan.On the basis of comprehensive power assessment,the paper analyzes the major Cross-Strait policies since 1978 with the comprehensive power theory,soft power theory and new functionalism theory,in order to examine the use and the effectiveness of hard and soft power in the process of Cross-Strait Relations.The paper examined Deng Xiaoping’s "Peaceful Reunification,One Country,Two Systems",Jiang Zemin’s "Eight Ideas",Hu Jintao’s "The Hard Becomes Harder,the Soft Becomes Softer",and Xi Jinping’s "Achieving Chinese Dream Together of the Mainland,and Chiang Ching-kuo’s "Three People’s Principles Unify China",Lee Teng-hui’s "Two-State Theory",Chen Shuibian’s "One Country on Each Side",and Ma Ying-jeou’s "Three’No’ Policy".The research shows that the development trend of Cross-Strait comprehensive power directly affects the formulation of Cross-Strait policy and the development of Cross-Strait Relations.At first,the Mainland overly depended on political power.With the overall upgrade of the comprehensive power,the mainland began to flexibly use the soft and hard power to promote the continuous production of the "spillover" effect.Taiwan’s mainland policy is relatively negative with the gradually loss of "advantage" of the comprehensive power.Even in the period of peaceful development of Cross-Strait Relations,the Taiwan authorities still limit Cross-Strait communication in the business area to avoid the "spillover" to extend to political area.At last,the paper uses "Comprehensive Power Dynamics Equation" to calculate Cross-Strait and Sino-US comprehensive power to discourse the inevitability of peaceful reunification.The model estimate shows that,in the case of relatively stable environmental conditions,the Cross-Strait comprehensive power will continue to improve in the future.The power gap will increase from 6.73 times in 2014 to 21.89 times in 2050.Mainland is currently relatively backward in living standard,education penetration rate and per capita economic indicators,which will overtake Taiwan in 2020—2030s.China’s overall strength accounted for about half of the US in 2014.The ratio will increase by about 10 percentage points every nine years in the future.Mainland’s comprehensive power will reach 95.2%of the US in 2050.The Cross-Strait and Sino-US comprehensive power comparison will inevitably make the Mainland take more initiative on the Taiwan Question to lay a solid foundation for the national reunification.Solving the Taiwan Question and realizing the reunification of China relate to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.The promotion of Mainland’s comprehensive strength will surely promote the development of Cross-Strait Relations in a direction toward reunification.The development and expansion of Mainland’s comprehensive power is the driving force for the peaceful development of Cross-Strait Relations and the basis for promoting peaceful reunification in the future.The Mainland should clearly understand and make full use of the Cross-Strait comprehensive power to consolidate and expand the foundation that supports the Cross-Strait peaceful development and national unity,to grab the controlling position in the pattern of Cross-Strait Relations,and to maintain the direction and situation of peaceful development,in order to reduce obstacles and add help of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.