Applied With Multi-scale Data To Forecast Severe Convcetive Weather

Severe convective weather is one of the key meteorological disaster in our conuntry and due to the strong development of atmospheric convection. The occurrence of the deep and moist convection system acquire 3 basic conditions in the atmosphere:the instability of the atmospheric energy structure; adequate moisture conditions and trigger mechanism. The development of the deep and moist convection system involves triphase changes of water and rainfall, so the wind changes with height involves direction and speed and the microphysics processes of cloud and precipitation have a significant impact to the conformation and development of it in addition to the role of atmospheric thermodynamics.This paper introduces the structure of severe convective weather and a series of its regular, predictable changes in the structure over time. And then analyze the characteristics of radar echoes, in order to better identify severe convective clouds. Through collecting and studying the meteorological stations and the sounding data, we selected the data of necessary physical elements and charted the V-30 diagram to analyze the atmospheric energy structure of severe convective weather. Summarized the features of the atmospheric energy structure before and during severe convective weather so that the V-30 diagram could be better used for nowcasting. In addition, this paper tested the index which was reflected the stability of the atmospheric structure.Combined with doppler weather radar, satellite, meteorological stations and sounding data etc, we analyzed the case which happened in Fujian May 1,2005, March 5,2010 and April 17,2011 in Guangdong province. Under study, the products of radar echoes, the V-30 diagram, the short-term forecast products of MICAPS forecasting platform, the products of numerical forecast etc. were used, and obtained some useful conclusions. With all these material, the forecasting conceptual model of severe convection weather was built. And by the exploration in forecasting, a new way for short-term forecast is set up.