Hazard Assessment Of Slope Sliding Based On Universal Generating Function

In this paper, by comparing related concepts and methods, the relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was illustrated. A new method for analysing slope stability called FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced. In order to analyse the slide hazard problem of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced. Besides, intensive research on some involved issues was conducted. The main content of the paper are as follows:(1) the hierarchical relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was analysed and illustrated. This paper put the analysis of slope stability and slope system's slide hazard as a keystone, sumerized their current study situation. Based on this, the following analysis methods and mathematical model were put forward.(2) For the high complexity of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced to assessment the hazard degree of slope system. Multi-state slope system model was put forward, and the hazard degree of slope slide was expressed by the model based on universal generating function.(3) The methods for analysing slope reliability such as First order reliability method, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Response surface method, Neural network method and Rosenblueth method and their advantages, disadvantages, application were illustrated and compared. FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced to analyse slope stability. According to features of slope, the performance function and limit state equation were built, then, sliding surfaces'location, reliability index and failure probability were calculated.(4) The study of project case was performed. The multi-state slope system model and slope slide hazard assessment model that based on universal generating function was applied to analyse hazard degree of a open slope in GuangDong province. In this process, other tool such as Auto CAD was used to calculate the intensity index of slide. Then, the hazard degree of slope slide was calculated. In the end, some advice for maintening and managing slope was put forward.