The Distribution Characteristics And Change Prediction Of The Total Ozone And Ultraviolet Over China

For recent twenty years, it is a fact by many observations that global tropospheric total ozone is depleting for human being activity. Total ozone depleting leads to the direct consequence that is the middle and short surface ultraviolet(UV) radiance increasing. UV increasing will have a significant impact of human being living, climate environment and ecological environment. So that , the present state and long-term change of global total ozone and UV provoke universal attention and study. The main study of this paper is the total ozone and UV distribution character and future change character in China.To the question of present ozone study using early TOMS data to study ozone and only study some area upper atmosphere total ozone, the paper adopt the recent TOMS data, and area over China are divided into 7 regions. The 7 regions are South of china, Southweastern Pltean, Qinghai-Platean, Center Eastern of China, Platean of Northweastern, North of China, Northeastern China. We use TOMS data to analyse the spatial and temporal, periodic of the total ozone over China.Combined the atmosphere ozone predict model of Shi Jiuen,Zhou Xiuji, we introduce a model to calculate the total ozone average annual-change, and use the model to predict the total ozone in future thirties years over China. The model have two part, the tendency and periodicity. The result shows the total ozone continuous deplete at great speed in future thirties years over China. Especially from 2013, the total ozone almost deplete in linear, and lead to minimum at 2030. Predicted there are no recovery phenomenon in future thirties years.In this paper, we at first introduce TUV model that was developed by NCAR to calculate tropospheric UV radiance, which will remedy the deficiency of UV model studying in China. We make two experiments of the TUV model, comparing the TUV model result to actual measured data. The two result only have a little difference. Suchindicate that we can use the TUV model to calculate the UV changing for the total ozone depleting.Based on the predicted total ozone in future thirties years and TUV model, we analyse the future change of UV over China. The tendency shows, in China, when the latitude become higher, the UV depleting rate increase greater, and the eastern UV rate is a little greater than the weastern's. The UV damage in the northern region is greater than the southern region, the eastern greater than the weastera. So you urgently need to take some method to protect UV damage when livng in the north and the east.