Research On Forecasting-warning Of Geo-hazards Base On RS And GIS In Linzhi District In East Tibet Plateau

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, so called "the Third polar of the Earth", because of special geographical location and influence on Quaternary environment, attracts the scientists'sight all over the world. Since last century, because of global climate change related with Qinghai-Tibet Plateau uplifting continuously and the human activity influence on ecological environment additionally, there are all kinds of geological hazards i.e. collapse, landslide, debris flow happened in the area. It is dangerous to transportation projects, people's life and property, protecting ecological environment and sustainable development. The central and local government has paid much attention to the issue. In order to fully understand the hazards of collapse, landslide, and debris flow happened in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the author selects Linzhi District with the area more than 80000km2 as experimental region. The paper tries to explore the characteristics and regularity of collapse, landslide and debris flow, and to make the research results theorization and visual, and to apply the research result to the unknown areas. With the method from special to ordinary and point to area, author finally realizes forecasting-warning research of geological hazards in the experimental district. Along with the early expert assessment method, many model theories were introduced into the forecast of geological hazards, such as method of multi-statistics, mathematics statistical model, model of dimorphic variable multiple regression, statistical discriminatory principle model, statistical model, fuzzy mathematics, etc. With the development of computer science and GIS technology, more and more forecast models were put forward, and it made the research on forecast of geological hazards to be applicable and developable. In recent years, four concept "distribution parameter", "potentiality parameter", "dangerous parameter", "harmfulness parameter"are adopted to describe the danger index of assessment on the regional geological hazards, meanwhile, geological hazard forecasting-warning system has made progress with the support of GIS technology. By fully use of remote sensing technology, combining with the existed research result and field investigation, author analyzes the formation and development regularity of geological hazards from the interior and epigenetic geological process, and then apply directly the result on regional geological hazards in experimental area. The concrete method is to investigate geological hazards in the experimental area based on remote sensing data of Landsat-ETM obtained in 2000. There are many factors has to be considered in the research on geological hazards, such as geological condition, topography, geomorphic, climate, vegetation condition, human activity, earthquake, temperature and water system distribution. Author concludes the regularity of formation and development of geological hazards. Basing on analysis mentioned above, summarizing the distribution regularity of geological hazards interpreted from remote sensing data and the result of field investigation, author selects and determines the assessment factors; after analyzing factors with the aid of GIS technology, Author gives the value of every assessment factors, make out judgment matrix of AHP and work out the weight of assessment factor. According to the AMFP which is put forward for regional geological hazards warning study, Author establishes the assessment model geological hazards of experimental region with Comprehensive Index Model and develops the geological hazard Forecasting-warning system of experimental region, which make the models to be systematized; and pays simultaneously attention to many problems in the development of system. Finally, author applies the geological hazard forecasting-warning system in the experimental region and provides the result of assessment on the regional geological hazards in this region. From the above-mentioned discussion, some conclusions are as following: The research method of this paper and construction of geological hazard Forecasting-warning system of research region have not only the theoretic but also...