| The distributive problem of energy is an important link to the sustainabledevelopment of a country, and a key problem whether a city can reach theinternational standard. Therefore, the choice and distribution of cities' energy areincreasingly paid great importance by the country, especially an internationalmetropolis like Beijing. The research objects of this thesis are how to use as well asdistribute energy and forecast the demand for energy more rationally, especially theresearch on the forecast and distribution to the amount of use of cities' natural gas,which is the key of this thesis.From the practical angle of view, and on the basis of comprehensive analysis ofthe energy at home as well as abroad and in particularly the distribution of natural gasas well as the method of the forecast to its amount of use, I do the deep research onthe amount of supply of cities' natural gas, its present situation of attribution, and theforecast of its future's amount of use. Firstly, the amount of use of natural gas ofBeijing in the future five years is forecasted through building Exponential smoothingmodel, according to the using situation of natural gas of Beijing in the past 10 years.Next, in the process of forecast, considering the usage of natural gas will be affectedby emergency, I adjust the model in order to forecast to the special years. Then, Ibuild the model that makes the forecast to the different production and living sectorsof cities, i.e. the building of attributive model, so that the degree of satisfaction to theamount of natural gas these different sectors are attributed can be maximized, underthe circumstance of the limited supply of natural gas.The research object of this thesis is the attribution and forecast to the amount ofuse of natural gas of Beijing. This kind of attributive and forecasted method is alsosuitable for other cities. Meanwhile, the improved method is also suitable for theattribution and forecast to parts of energy, which has the good extensibility.
|
PDF Full Text Request