The Analysis Of Songhuaiiang River Basin Climatic Changes And Prediction

In this paper, Climatic changes of precipitation and air temperature ,the Tendency prediction of future changes of precipitation and air temperature of Shonghuajiang river basin were studied based on climate data including precipitation and air temperature records data of 35 observational stations in Shonghuajiang river basin between 1961 and 2005, Provided by Heilongjiang Meterological Center and Jilin Meterological Center. Tendency analysis ,vector EOF expansion ,Vavelet analysis were used in this study ,The main conclusions are as follows :The long range change tendency of yearly precipitation and seasonal precipitation are: yearly precipitation and spring precipitation and summer precipitation and autumn precipitation decreased slightly, but winter precipitation in this region increased slightly .The climatic tendency of air temperature of shonghuajiang river basin is that both yearly and seasonal average air temperature show slight Increase ,especially for winter air temperature, while summer air temperature increase only a little.The main distribution patterns are obtained of temperature and precipitation with EOF method. And Wavelet analysis are used to analyze the changes in cycle time factor. The wavelet analysis of the time factor of empirical orthogonal decomposition shows that the first volume features exist change cycle. And give a distribution period of increase precipation and decrease precipitation.The method of Mean Generating Function was inspected by the history data and a better conclusion was given by the inspection that this method have a better predict result .The future tendency of temperature and preciptaion is caculated by the method of Mean Generating Function .the mean conclusions are as follows: the future yearly precipitation and spring precipitation decrease first ,then increase .autumn precipitation decrease first then will have a high point ,summer precipation will disturb among the average of spring pricipation.winter precipation will decrease .abou the temperature ,the yearly temperature and spring temperature increase first then decrease .the summer temperature have little disturbance. and autumn temperature and winter temperature decrease and then have a slight increase.