A Study Of The Relationship Between The Climate Variation And The Surface Water Resource In Northeast China

Using the 53 years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean data for the period1948-2000, We simply analyse the influence of the temperature and (or)precipitation on the surface water resource (surface potential evaporation, Surfacerunoff, 0-10cm underground volumetric soil moisture and 10-200cm undergroundvolumetric soil moisture) in Northeast China in different seasons. The results showthat there is a better relationship between the surface water resource in NortheastChina and temperature and the precipitation. The simple statistical evaluation modelsabout the influence of the temperature and (or) precipitation on the variables of thesurface water resource are also established. Bases on these models, the responses ofthe variables of the surface water resource in Northeast China to the different climatevariations are studied. And we conclude some significant results, for example asmaller "climatic fluctuation" can result in a bigger change in the surface runoff inNortheast China.By adopting 9 kinds of global general circulation models (GCM) and the sametime(1961-2000) temperature and precipitation observed data to assess the predictioncapability of models. The analysis result shows the models have the ability to predictclimate change in Northeast China, every model simulated have the systematic errors.Form the correlation coefficient and tendency between models simulated andobserved shows that,the predict capability is the best for temperature, no so good forprecipitation. For the characteristic of spatial distribution, models can model theclimate distribution. Finally, the study shows the annual modeling is the best, the nextis autumn. CCCMA_CGCM3₁ is the best in simulating climatic changes over theNortheast China in nine models.By adopting IPCC-AR4 models results,analysis the primary characteristic ofclimate and Utilizable Precipitation change in Northeast China under A1b,A2,B1emissions scenarios. The results shows that the variation tendency of temperature andprecipitation in Northeast increasing,the variation tendency of temperature are moreobviously. The spatial distribution temperature and precipitation were the sameincreasing and decreasing tendency. The future Utilizable Precipitation change showsthat the variation of Surface potential evaporation are the most obvious ,under A2scenarios, increasing 12.3～14.4ï¼…the next is surface runoff, decreasing 4～4.7ï¼…,0-10cm soil moisture content and 10-200cm soil moisture content aredecreasing unobvious.