Study On Forecasting Model Of Coalbed Methane In The East Of Ordos Basin

The thesis explore and study the basic geological data of the East of Ordos Basin, and analyse the control factor of gas content, search out the master control factor of gas content in this area. Applying the mathematics of stepwise regression, establish the linear regression equation of gas content forecasting, and check and analyse this equation and the forecasting result, it is approved that the forecasting method is comparatively effective. Research the fundamental principle and method of CBM calculation of reserves, analyse and compare both computational methods, Optimize the method of calculation of reserves which is fit for this area, and modify the calculation formula of the traditional volumetric method, consider the affection of ash content and water content for the computational solution of reserves. Separately applying Grid and Monte Carlo, calculate the CBM geologic reserves of DaNing-XiangNing, compare and analyse the computational solution of the two methods. Think that tectonic is the master control element, which dominate the CBM gas reservoir in this area, tectonic slope and high place is the beneficial place which form coal bed gas reservoir, and the favor prospecting target is situated at DaNing-JiXian. The research on the gas content forecasting of coal bed and calculation of reserves is rather embedded. In theory, the author induct the method and theory of Grid and Monte Carlo, and establish the regression equation of gas content forecasting, enrich and develop the theory of CBM resources forecasting.