Impact Of Climate Change On Phenology In Central Henan Province

The tendencies of climate and phenophases of animals and plants in central Henan Province during 1981-2003 were analyzed, then the simulation models were established on the basis of further study on the relationship between them. Main conclusions are as follows:The average air temperature in central Henan Province increased during 1981-2003, of which the temperature in February and March had the greatest increasing range; sunshine duration in most weather stations has declined; the largely increase of precipitation in the first four years of 20th century was the main reason which caused the increase of average precipitation in this area in 23 years.During 1981-2003, the advanced tendencies of phenophases of woody plants became unobvious gradually from spring to autumn, which changed from uniform advancement in foliation date to both advancement and postponement in defoliation date. The advancement of leaf unfolding date prolonged the growing season of wood plants. Each phenophase of herbaceous plants was advanced markedly and the forward range of procreating phenophases was bigger than that of growing phenophases. The growing seasons of most herbaceous plants were shortened. The phenology of animals in first appearing period showed both advancement and postponement and their phenology in disappearing period was advanced markedly, so the active period was shortened.Air temperature was the main influencing factor to plant leaf unfolding and flowering and mainly impacted in the two months before phenophases. Leaves unfolding and flowering of most plant were advanced with air temperature rising except reed whose flowering date in Yongcheng area was postponed with warming. The whole effect of either sunshine duration or precipitation was less than air temperature, however, they had a long influencing period which could extend to last year. The relationship between meteorologic factors and woody plants defoliation was insignificant, that may be due to the inherent genetic mechanisms of woody plants are not vulnerable to environment The scorch date of herbaceous plants was significantly correlated with meteorological factors and showed different responses to each meteorological element in different period due to their various biological characteristics. Air temperature both during their growth cycle and current year influenced the length of plant growing season markedly. Animals in different development stage had different demand for air temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation as their distinct habits.Tree leaf unfolding date was modeled using nonlinear air temperature model, and the leaf unfolding date of herbaceous plants and the date of animal phenophase in their appearing periods modeled using multiple linear regression. Then advantages and disadvantages of each model and the reasons that might cause simulate deviation were analyzed according to the results. These models performed well when they were used to simulate the phenophases of the research objects in 2004.