Short Forcast Model Of Clamate In Chongqing

Chongqing is one of four cities directly under the jurisdiction of China.It is the economical and cultural center of southwest area.It located in the upriver of Changjiang which is edge of The Three gorges reservoir.Most area of Chongqing is in the Three gorges reservoir Region.Envionment variables of reservoir will deeply impact on climate of Chongqing.After the completion of Three gorges reservoir,water level will keep between 145--175 metres.The vegetation which lived in intercoastal of Changjiang will be flooded.The more water and soil will be lost.The Climate in Chongqing will become instable and uncertain.For example,the summer drought in 2006 and summer flood in 2007 have got great lost in Chongqing.Appearation of these instable factors,the short forcast climate in Chongqing becomes more complex.The research of short forcast climate is more required.The climate disaster becomes more serious,it has been a global problem of science.The WCRP(world climate research programme)has been created.The main purpose of this programme is indicating physical reason of climate disaster,and enhancing forcast ability of climate disaster. These years,more observation data indicates that the disaster of climate occurred in certain period. Foreign scientist intend to introduce the new method to ameliorate forcasting of global changes.This method integratively considered all the dangers caused by climate changes.It intend to introduce "uncertainty",use the method of probability to enhance its veracity.This paper collect the average 30 years data of every months:the minimum of temperatures,the maximal temperatures and rainfall from 1961 to 1990.In addition we have the minimum of temperatures,the maximal temperatures,the average temperatures,the hours of sunlight and rainfall datas of every months from 1994 to 2004.For some of datas can not be collected,we introduce some simulate datas.According to the collect data,this paper introduce the optimal climate marmals for forcasting. We forcast the minimum of temperatures,the maximal temperatures,the average temperatures,the hours of sunlight and rainfall datas of every months from 2005 to 2007.These data is used for validating and the elements of the later research.We forcast the minimum of temperatures,the maximal temperatures,the average temperatures,the hours of sunlight and rainfall datas of every months in 2008,and summarize the character of climates in Chongqing.These years,the global changes becomes more obvious.The man-made environment pollution destroyed the intrinsic balance of ecology,led abnormity of climate.At end of the paper,we build a web database system to show the forcast results.The system consisted ASP programmes.ASP programmes is a rising object oriented proggrams.The part modules proggrammes have relatively independence.It can be connect other programmes and data base.Because the operate interface and the programme code are separate and encrypt MD5 system make the database System more safely.This database packed up,analysed,embodyed the data of climate in these years. We builded database on single index.Then combined them.Builded a database of synthesis.Database on single index concluded five parts:statistic from 1994 to 2004, foreast verify from 2005 to 2007,forcast result in 2008,the character and reason of climate in Chongqing,the measure of paroxysmal climate disaster.This database system can be used in windows operation system.This system can sort data,add data,delete data,amend data and share these results on-line.It has a better practicability for easy operation.