Prediction Of The Failure Time Of Life Test

This dissertation consists of two parts. In the first part, in reference to the Bayes Statistics theory and methods, the author draws the Posterior Distributions ofthe two failure times (r+1) based on each first failure time (r) (t₁,t₂,…,t_r) respectivelyobserved in the Life Test of Type-I Censoring Case and the Life Test of Type-â…¡Censoring Case, and hence obtains the point estimation of each failure time (r+1) and the interval estimation of each confidence level (1-α). Whereafter, the regular life distributions (one-parameter exponential distribution, two-parameter exponential distribution, two-parameter Weibull distribution) are probed with the methods discussed above and the related predictions are verified by stochastic simulation.In the other part of this dissertation, on the thereunder of first failure time (r)(t₁,t₂,…,t_r) observed in the Type-I Censoring Test, the author draws the probability(P_r=P(t_r+1-t₀|t)) of the subsequent survival time (â–³t) of product (r+1) bynonparametric statistical method, and hence obtains the confidence interval of the failure time (r+1) on confidence level (1-α). Then, the parameters of one-parameter exponential distribution, two-parameter exponential distribution, and two-parameter Weibull distribution are estimated respectively with three related methods, and the failure time (r+1) is discussed in the methods obtained above in this paper. Afterwards, the practical test on the results and the comparison among the predictions drew by the three methods are conducted with substantial data.