Research And Development Of Flood Forecasting System Of JinJiang Valley

According to current obtained hydrologic and phenomena information, flood forecasting forecast a stream cross-section's flow and stage which occur in the future definitive time(named foresee period).The development reservoir real-time flood forecasting and flood protection scheduling decision support system, implementating the automatic of rainfall regime and water-state information, including acquisition, transmission, pretreatment, forecasting, scheduling, named on-line real-time flood forecasting scheduling system, which is the development direction of Water Regime Automatic Surveying System.On the basis of hydrologic characteristic in the JinJiang valley, in order to exact and real-time forecast reservoir inflow flood, SanShuiYuan Xin'anjiang distributed model was selected as forecast model, applying Muskingum to proceed stream channel's flow calculation. On the based of Delphi language and SQL Server 2000 database develop high practicability flood forecast software and implement man-machine conversation function. Software have much function, such as debugging parameter, showing rainfall and flood contrast chart, showing real-time rainfall, inquiry consequence, printing and output etc. The system has been operated in the JinJiang valley, which proves that system operation is basically stabilization, flood forecasting precision is fit for the criterion.Because of continuance strengthen complexity and dynamic of hydrology water resources system, continuance enlargement research scale and influence factor, original research technique and path display definitive difficulty, individual application certainty and uncertainty method face many question that can't be good settle. And so this research apply very popular nerves network that proceed inflow flood's analogue in the JinJiang valley in international.Artificial nerves network now is one of the advancing research filed of the world. The research purpose of artificial nerves network is applying software and hardware to implementation technique, and applying the intelligence information handling ability of artificial nerves network to engineering practice. On the based of the originally method advantage, establishment reasonable artificial nerves network model can settle some complex question that can't be settled by originally method. In this research, author reference the application, the model regulation and request of some nerves network that be used in flood forecast, which established the nerves network model of suitable for JinJiang valley, that is delay nerves network BP model. In this research, author employ two types model to forecast reservoir inflow flood. However in spite of applying which model to proceed flood forecast, system error is inevitable. In this last paper, author analysis and compare two types model. The consequence show that the forecast runoff result of nerves network BP model is better to the forecast result of Xin'anjiang model...