Typhoon Storm Surge Vulnerability Analyses Of China Coastal Area On The Sea Revel Rise Background

Coastal area not only the important center of population, economic and society development of our country, but also the area where natural disaster happen frequently. Base on typhoon storm surge data from 1989 to 2008, SRTM3 DEM data, county district data of 2009, 100 meter grid land-use data of 2005, GDP and population data of 2003 of China coastal area, the study analyses the vulnerability of typhoon storm surge of China coastal area on the sea level rise background. The study uses linear regression method to predict the sea level rise data, regression method to predict the recurrence period of storm surge and their heights of climax tides, altitude-area method to get the area of inundated land and Geo-Statistics method to get area, population and GDP of each vulnerable district. The result of the study indicates that, (1) The sea-level of China will rise 1 meter in 2100. It not only increase the height of typhoon storm surge but shorten the recurrence period of typhoon storm surge. In that mean, 65-year-recurrence-period typhoon storm surge recent will become 13-year-recurrence-period ones in 2100. This will serious infect the sea dikes in the coastal area of China. (2) Delta of the Zhujiang River, coastal zone of north Zhejiang province, delta of the Changjiang River, alluvial plain in the north of Jiangsu province, Laizhou bay, delta of the Huanghe River, Bohai bay and Liaodong bay will been serious influenced by the storm surge. Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Nantong, Taizhou, Suzhou, Yangzhou, Yancheng, Lianyungang, Laizhou, Dongying, Binzhou, Tianjin, Panjin and Yingkou are the seventeen most vulnerable districts, should be paid the most attention in the further. (3) Agriculture land is the most vulnerable land-use type, then water, construction land, forest, grass land. Desert is the least vulnerable land-use type. Agriculture land, water, and construction land are the three most possibly inundated land-use types by storm surge. (4) Because of the increase of seal-level in the further, heighten and reinforce the sea dikes is the most useful method to protect the low land from typhoon storm surge in the coastal area in China. The dikes of Zhujiang and Beijiang coastal area, both river banks along the Changjiang River in the delta of the Changjiang River, Laizhou bay, delta of the Huanghe River, Bohai bay and Liaodong bay should be heightened and reinforced in the further. Build the most high standard sea dikes is the priority choice if economic is possible.