A Study On Probability Matching And Benefit Maximizing In Game Decision

The researchers have studied probability matching and benefit maximizing in game decision, the probability matching and benefit maximizing of psychological and neural mechanism still did not have the conclusion at present, the viewpoint of cognition limits and the viewpoint of seeking for the pattern in the random sequences are supported by different researcher, but we thought that the probability matching simultaneously has the simple matching strategy and the analytical matching strategy. Therefore this study will explore probability matching and benefit maximization the psychological and the neural mechanism through two experiments.Experiment 1, we employed the probability of guessing paradigm to investigate whether the different interference tasks will affect the use of two matching strategy in the prediction task. The results demonstrated that:In interference tasks and without interference tasks, the analytical matching strategy group response time was significantly longer than that of type matching group. In without interference tasks, the two strategy groups the percentage of high probability option was 70%, all people have adopted probability matching strategy. In the space interference task, the two strategy groups the percentage of high probability option was over 90%, two groups of some 16 people have adopted benefit maximizing strategy. In the speech interference task, the analytical matching strategy group the percentage of high probability option was over 87%,14 people tend to use benefit maximizing strategy. The simple matching strategy group the percentage of high-probability option was above 75%, only 2 people tend to use benefit maximizing strategy Experimental results show that the probability matching, there indeed exists the simple matching strategy and the analytical matching strategy, also speculated that the analytical matching strategy need to integrate the right and left hemispheres of resources, of simple matching strategy need only occupy the right hemisphere resources, of course this conclusion need to be further confirmed by fMRI studies in future.Experiment 2, using the probability of guessing paradigm, Event-related brain potentials were measured three strategies in game decision. The results show that:,the analytical matching strategy than simply matching strategy and the benefit maximizing strategy of the ERP waveforms evoked a more negative ERP component (N1), maybe reflects the difference of endogenous attention to the spatial location information processing, dipole source analysis of difference wave indicated that N1 originate in the intraparietal sulcus; the analytical matching strategy than simply matching strategy and the simply matching strategy than the benefit maximizing strategy of the ERP waveforms evoked a more positive ERP component (P2), maybe reflects the difference of the allocation of spatial attention, dipole source analysis of difference wave indicated that P2 originate in the cingulate gyrus.At400-600ms, the analytical probability matching strategy than the simple probability matching strategy of the ERP waveforms evoked a larger negative trend (LNC), may reflect the activation of episodic memory and emotions, Dipole tracing analysis shows that originated in the posterior cingulate gyrus.