Forecasting Study Of Ice Jam Stage Based On SVM

Ice is a ubiquitous water phenomenon in cold area river, the change of water level during ice jam is one the uppermost phenomena in ice jam reach.This article introduced the general situation of the domestic and international ice jam research and the necessity of the water level research firstly. In succession, discussed the formation condition and the formation process of the ice cover in detail,the ice jam formation mechanism and the general regulation of development in the space,the water level variety process that caused by ice jam, factors that influence the ice jam water level:the river power factor, the thermodynamic energy factor, the water current dynamical factor and artificial factor etc..Then,briefly introduced the support vector machine model,built up the support vector machine model on this foundation, and forecast ice jam water level distinguish under experiment condition and natural condition.Comparison predicted results of support vector machine and Bp neural network shows that, effect of the support vector machine prediction method is better, being worth to be popularized.