Research On Water Quality Prediction Model Of Non-conservative Matter In Jiaozhou Bay

'Red tidal' frequently occurs in neritic sea areas, nitrogen and phosphorus are listed in major pollution control guideposts. That all reflects the status of marine pollution. It's fundamental to develop water quality prediction technology of non-conservative matter.Based on ECOM model created by Princeton University, the current field was simulated considering the variation of Jiaozhou Bay bank form in recent years. Then the water quality prediction model of non-conservative matter was created in Jiaozhou Bay on the base of analysing primary physical and biochemical process relating to nitrogen and phosphorus concentration distribution. Forced by observed water temperature and light intensity the paper simulates the temporal and spatial variation of every state variable. At last the influence of river inflow is discussed. At the same time there is a rough discussion about distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the paper.The comparison between calculation result and observation data indicate that the model simulates well the temporal and spatial distribution of every state variable .The simulation result show that nitrogen and phosphorus keep a higher concentration in the north and east part Jiaozhou Bay during the whole summer; that the concentration of phytoplankton and zooplankton is higher in north Jiaozhou Bay. There is a peak value of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the middle of August.The paper thinks more river inflow and the slow water exchange are chief reasons why nitrogen and phosphorus maintain a higher concentration in north Jiaozhou Bay .The distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton also influents that of nitrogen and phosphorus.Sensitivity tests indicate that nitrogen and phosphorus are not sensitive to parameters, on the contrary phytoplankton is sensitive to the most. Relatively constant of temperature function, maximum nutrient uptake rate ,maximum grazing rate zooplankton onphytoplankton and Ivlev constant for grazing are important factors.The development of non-conservative matter prediction technology presents method for the study of environmental capacity of nitrogen and phosphorus. At the same time it presents the law for pollution gross control.