Estimation Of The Annual Load Of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Illustrated With Huaihe River In Huainan

Although the measures to control the pollution in Huaihe Valley are stronger than before, the managements of the drainage of industrial wastewater are strengthened, and the pollution percents up to par is higher and higher, but non-point source pollution (NSP) is becoming a main influence of water pollution in Huaihe River for its being an unsubstantial part in pollution control. To calculate the annual load of agricultural non-point source pollution is one of the basic works to accomplish the tasks about the environment and to institute the sustainable development stratagem.According to the National Natural Science Found, River Water Quality's Virtual Regulation & Control Illustrated with Huaihe River in Anhui Province ( 50379003 ), and the actuality of no simulation on the annual load of agricultural non-point source pollution in Huaihe Valley now, how to estimate and forecast the annual load is discussed under the condition of existing data.On the basis of the roundly summing-up of the research on NSP inlands and overseas, the existed problems and developing trends are analyzed. The instructional meaning of estimating the annual load is higher than forecasting the load of sometime or some section. Aiming at the scarcity of data and the difficulties in building mechanism model, hydrological methods are used to calculate the annual load of NSP because the data needed in statistic methods is less. The NSP brought by livestock and poultry is also numbered and differentiated. At the same time, the partial least square regressive method integrating the multi-regression, the principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis, is experimented firstly to build the model estimating the annual load of NSP. The well ability in applications is showed after used in practice. What's more, how to combine the theoretically research and practical use is discussed on the base of the research on its character, formation, transference and quantity. All-sided countermeasures are put forward according to the actuality of NSP in Huaihe Valley.