Study On Air Pollution Forecast Model In Hills Complex Terrain

The air pollution directly affects the living quality and health standard. The forecast model for air pollution is an effective means for pollution control. At present, the forecast result by Regulatory model has large bias in the complex terrain, so there is a large difficulty in exactly forecasting the air quality in complex terrain. Chongqing is a typical mountain city, an important "double-controlling region", therefore it has an important meaning to study air pollution forecast model in Chongqing. As a new generation air quality and dispersion model, if ADMS can effectively deal with the complex terrain, it would be applied to Chongqing and resolve the difficulty of air pollution forecast in complex terrain. The paper chooses a 2×2km2 small area as forecasted region in Anju town Tongliang County which has the similar terrain and climate with Chongqing and chooses 4 points in different direction and 12 points in SSW direction as forecasted points. Regulatory model and ADMS are used to forecast the forecasted points separately. The statistical analysis of forecast result indicates that ADMS has more exact result than Regulatory model in forecasted region. The paper also uses ADMS in two situations, considering terrain and not. The forecast result indicates remarkably difference, so ADMS is sensitive to terrain data. The forecast result by ADMS in considering terrain has upper correlative coefficient and congruous index with monitor data, which indicates ADMS is rather effective in dealing with terrain, so it can be applied to complex terrain region and can gain the preferable forecast result. In the paper the analysis on the method of wind speed which is less than 0.75m/s,indicates this method will lead a larger bias in the region in which calm wind has higher frequency and stability condition. So when ADMS is used in this region, a suggestion, 0.75m/s covers for the wind speed which is less than 0.75m/s and more than 0.5m/s and 0.5m/s covers for the wind speed which is less than 0.5m/s, wind direction changes to the wind direction of the former meteorology data, is given. The paper indicates other ameliorations besides terrain and calm wind also beget a remarkably different result comparing to Regulatory model. Restricted by the condition and time, the forecast region in this paper is small and in countryside, the researches on ADMS only focus on the whole system and qualitative analysis. A suggestion for the following research is that enlarge forecasted region, chose a city as applied area, separately analyse each parameter which affect the forecast result, compare it to the real value, find the dominating parameter and modify the formula for the parameter.