Research On Cybernetics Based System Security Assessment Theory

This paper applied cybernetics to assess System Security, consider the Security Assessment as a cybernetics proposition, select the system assessment as command object, security measure as controller, combine the estimated system and security measure to form a feedback close loop control system, as to dynamic assessment of the system.Based on the token system fatalness index analysis, select the rate of one thousand wounded people as the index variable of the System security state equation, using difference equation to estimate the System Security model, and take some cases for example to approve the state equation.After estimating the System Security state model, estimate the system danger index and system danger control index, considering the large randomicity of the primitive data and the limited data, we carry on three years entrusts with weight to the primary data to skid processing, it is proved that this method can effectively advance precision and minish errors. Based on the evaluation of existent index estimation method, this paper uses LKL to estimate the index and found system security state model equation.This paper uses FAHP method and the system operation state to estimate the system danger index and its estimate value, and have a relativity analysis for the index estimation values, when they have a good correlation, it can be considered that the indexes in system can represent the system operation state, forecast the future system the rate of one thousand wounded people in latter years by means of Kalman Filter prediction, system feedback control is a method that aim at system analysis results and propose security measure to control the system security based on system analysis.